By Rob Biertempfel
PITTSBURGH TRIBUNE-REVIEW
Monday, April 2, 2007
BRADENTON, Fla. -- Eighty-three victories were enough for the St. Louis Cardinals to win the National League Central Division last year. They went on to capture the World Series.
Eighty-three victories.
It doesn't seem like a lot -- and it's not. But it still is more than the Pirates have won in any season since 1992. Last season, for the second year in a row, they finished 67-95.
Yet, there is a glimmer of hope for Pirates fans to uncover in the Cardinals' low-ball magic number. A simple equation in the era of watered-down, post-expansion baseball: win 83 games, get into the playoffs, and anything can happen.
Eight-three victories.
Can the Pirates reach that level, or better? The offense figures to improve with Adam LaRoche anchoring the lineup. The defense should be sturdy, especially if Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez click up the middle. Ian Snell and Zach Duke headline a promising starting rotation.
What's more, the Pirates control the contracts of all those players, and nearly everyone else on the 40-man roster, through 2009. After that, another rebuilding phase might be in order.
So, the Pirates have a chance -- a three-year window of opportunity -- to climb out of mediocrity and contend for a title.
"No question about it," chief executive officer Kevin McClatchy said.
What they do with it is up to them.
"I think we've got a good chance this year to push for the playoffs," pitcher Ian Snell said on a sunny Thursday morning in February, as pitchers and catchers reported to spring training. "It's going to be a pretty good year. We're going to win some games. I guarantee it."
The Las Vegas wiseguys have listed the Pirates' odds of winning the 2007 World Series at 100 to 1, making them the biggest underdog among NL teams.
The Pirates also face some long odds when it comes to winning their division. None of the other teams in the NL Central stood pat this offseason.
With home run machine Albert Pujols and ace Chris Carpenter around, St. Louis didn't have to do much to its roster. The Cards picked up two bargain-bin pitchers: Kip Wells and Ryan Franklin.
But is it asking too much for Wells, who was beset by health issues and flopped in Pittsburgh, to be the No. 2 gun in the rotation? And will the Scott Rolen soap opera -- manager Tony La Russa benched him for a pivotal playoff game -- sour the clubhouse mood?
The Houston Astros made a big splash by handing slugger Carlos Lee a $100 million deal. He'll be excellent lineup protection for Lance Berkman, who hit .315 with 45 homers last season.
After losing Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens, Houston restocked its rotation by dealing speedy center fielder Willy Tavares to Colorado for right-hander Jason Jennings.
But the Astros have issues. At 40 years old, how much does starter Woody Williams have left? What about Craig Biggio, who's holding off retirement in a quest for his 3,000th hit? Did they give up too much for Jennings?
Chicago wound up at the bottom of the division in 2006, so management opened its wallet. The Cubs spent $136 million for Alfonso Soriano, $75 million to re-sign Aramis Ramirez, $21 million to get Jason Marquis and $40 million to lure Ted Lilly.
Ronny Paulino rounds third after belting a two-run homer against the Red Sox this spring
Why fork over so much for Lilly, who's gone 59-58 with a 4.60 ERA? Consider his career splits against left-handed batters: a .234 batting average against and only 15 homers allowed in eight seasons.
That counts for something in a division with lefty boppers such as LaRoche, Berkman, Prince Fielder, Adam Dunn, Jim Edmonds and Ken Griffey Jr.
But the Cubs' biggest problem last year was offense; they ranked 28th in the majors in runs scored, even with Ramirez putting up solid stats.
The Milwaukee Brewers made a good-faith effort at improvement, outbidding the Pirates for starter Jeff Suppan. But the corner outfield spots are unsettled, and the offense is too strikeout-prone.
Are the Cincinnati Reds even trying? Their biggest winter signing was shortstop Alex Gonzalez.
The Pirates did not do a lot in the offseason, but the moves they did make were calculated for maximum impact. Trading for LaRoche added a power-hitting lefty with excellent defensive skills. Signing Tony Armas put an experienced right-hander in the rotation.
LaRoche is 27 and is only in the first of his three arbitration-eligible years. Jason Bay, 28, is signed through 2009. Duke is four years away from free-agent eligibility; Snell, five.
"You go down the roster and it seems like everybody's about 25 years old and had a lot of success in the minor leagues," right-hander Bryan Bullington said. He was talking specifically about the rotation, but it applies to the entire team.
Jason Bay
For the Pirates, the 2007 season is not necessarily about winning it all. It's about the core of players who were so solid in the latter half of '06 continuing to make strides.
"I have a strong sense these players are going to get better," manager Jim Tracy said. "Experience will make them better."
Tweak the roster a bit more next winter, then expect bigger things in 2008 and '09 before the window of opportunity slams shut.
"This is what we've been trying to do, and it's started to come to fruition," Littlefield said. "Now, we've got to win games and put full seasons together, not just half-seasons."
McClatchy, who has taken heat as the Pirates have stumbled to 14 consecutive losing seasons, also wants more. "Anybody who thinks we'll pop the champagne when we get to .500 is nuts," McClatchy said. "We haven't gone through all the bad stuff not to see the good stuff. I think the fans are going to be happy with what they see."
So ... a number, please? McClatchy smiled, sensing the trap.
"I'm not going to put a number out there which we hope to get to," he said.
In that case, let's do it for him. For simplicity's sake, and for the sake of argument, let's extrapolate the Pirates' 37-35 record after the All-Star break over the course of an entire season.
How does 37-35 translate to a full-season record? The answer, as you might have guessed, is a magic number.
Eighty-three victories.
Rob Biertempfel can be reached at rbiertempfel@tribweb.com or (412) 320-7811.
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