Tuesday, September 21, 2010
By Dejan Kovacevic, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/?m=1
When the Pirates' list of uncertainties for 2011 is topped by the status of general manager Neal Huntington and manager John Russell, that can greatly complicate any forecast for what might happen on the field. Those are, after all, the team's top two baseball men, and their input on the makeup of the roster would be the most influential.
Based on several interviews with management in recent days, it is clear the roster is expected to be more fluid than some might think, even with a young core.
"We feel like we've got some pieces that we can begin to build with," Huntington said. "I don't want to say build around because that makes it seem like they're more than they are. We've got some young players who are growing and getting better. They're showing abilities. They're also showing that we need to get better, to expedite their development, to help them play better baseball. As we sit here, we're starting to get a lot more answers than questions."
Matt Freed/Post-GazettePirates pitcher James McDonald is 4-5 with a 4.09 ERA this season.
A position-by-position look:
Starting pitching
Nowhere is the need greater, as evidenced by the historically bad rotation. Management has suggested of late that blame lies with some pitchers for failing to prepare properly for the spring, but that, too, is the domain of management. And the far likelier culprit is that the pitchers simply are not good enough.
James McDonald has been highly encouraging since being acquired in one of Huntington's best trades. He will join Ross Ohlendorf, who pitched far better than his 1-11 record, and Paul Maholm, who did not pitch well but is due $5.75 million, as the only things close to locks heading into next year.
Zach Duke almost surely will be non-tendered and enter free agency. Jeff Karstens, Brian Burres, Charlie Morton, Brad Lincoln and others will be viewed as depth, with Karstens now eyed for a long relief role.
Little is available at Class AAA Indianapolis, although the top two pitchers at Class AA Altoona, Rudy Owens and Bryan Morris, should open there.
Where will the help come from?
Huntington and team president Frank Coonelly said the Pirates will explore free agency, and the current sentiment is that the bulk of the team's free money could -- that's could -- go toward pitching. Given that the free-agent pool is not terribly inviting below the top-tier types, for whom the Pirates have no plan to bid, trades might make for a more realistic approach.
Management is of the mind that it will be a challenge finding top-of-the-rotation help, but there can be no question this area presents the best chance to improve quickly.
Bullpen
Huntington has fared well each of the past three winters in building a bullpen essentially from scratch, including the $7.3 million invested most recently in Octavio Dotel, D.J. Carrasco and Javier Lopez.
This one will be easier, if only because Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek offer two options at closer, usually the most expensive piece. Of the others currently there, management has liked Chris Resop enough that he is sure to be given a long look in the spring. But the rest have made negligible impressions, with the occasional exception of Daniel McCutchen.
Management's internal candidates to fill it out include Karstens, as well as Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio, both recovering from shoulder surgery and both out of options.
This, too, is likely to be addressed heavily from the outside.
Joel Hanrahan celebrates with catcher Ryan Doumit after getting the final out of the ninth inning against the Atlanta Braves in a baseball game in Pittsburgh Monday, Sept. 6, 2010. The Pirates won 3-1. (AP)Catcher
When Chris Snyder was acquired in July, the apparent longer-term plan was to have him defensively solidify the catcher's position until top prospect Tony Sanchez could arrive. But that went awry as Snyder batted .192 and a pitch broke Sanchez's jaw to cost him the final two months with Class A Bradenton.
Nonetheless, the plan remains. Snyder is due $6.25 million next season, which would make him the team's highest-paid player. He, like Maholm, will play. And Sanchez will open 2011 in Class AA, management hoping that extra action in the Arizona Fall League will make up for lost time.
What of Ryan Doumit?
Public protestations aside, the Pirates would welcome trading him and the $5.1 million he is due, if only to avoid having 20 percent of payroll committed to catchers. But that will be difficult, and Doumit could return in a similar catcher/right field role. His overall play has improved since Snyder's arrival.
First base
With Huntington's pronouncement two weeks ago that Garrett Jones will be viewed in a platoon role for next year, first base and/or right field became by far the likeliest targets for offensive upgrades.
The corner outfield crop in free agency is basically Jayson Werth and little else, and Werth, who just signed with super-agent Scott Boras, will cost well out of the Pirates' desired range. So, first base would be easier to address.
Big names in free agency include Adam Dunn, Derrek Lee and Carlos Pena, but it always is best, again, to look away from big names and/or dollars when predicting the Pirates' moves. Huntington suggested as much when saying late last month that he did not envision finding an elite power bat through free agency.
One possible inside solution is John Bowker, who has been quite the hit with the coaching staff despite some low numbers upon his arrival.
Look to a trade as the likeliest answer here. First basemen are not scarce.
Neil Walker watches his two-run homer in front of Arizona Diamondbacks catcher John Hester in the eighth inning of the baseball game in Pittsburgh, Sunday, Sept. 19, 2010. The Pirates came from behind to win 4-3. (AP)Second base
This will belong to Neil Walker, who defied the Pirates' internal analysis in establishing himself as a potential middle-of-the-field fixture for years to come.
Third base
Pedro Alvarez will stay at the hot corner, though that continues to be written in pencil. He has improved in going to his right and has been good at charging the ball and throwing. But rough edges remain.
If the Pirates use the No. 1 overall draft pick -- they are six games behind the Seattle Mariners for last in the Major League Baseball standings -- on Rice University third baseman Anthony Rendon, maybe that will change over time.
Alvarez has struggled with 107 strikeouts in 298 at-bats and has one home run since Aug. 8, but the chance of a backward step to the minors is minimal.
Shortstop
Ronny Cedeno hardly has made huge improvement in the past couple months -- a .324 average in July, .243 in August, .254 this month -- but the coaching staff has seen him as more consistent, offensively and defensively. Moreover, Cedeno still is seen as a highly talented player whose primary shortcoming is putting it all together.
That, of course, can be a whale of a shortcoming if sustained, and defensively gifted rookie Pedro Ciriaco is going to be Indianapolis' shortstop, with an eye of pushing Cedeno. And that would be, the Pirates can only hope, a meaningful push, unlike the signing last winter of .236-hitting Bobby Crosby to push the .237-hitting Cedeno.
Jose Tabata makes a running catch on a ball hit by Milwaukee Brewers' Prince Fielder during the second inning of a baseball game Friday, Aug. 27, 2010, in Milwaukee. (AP)Outfield
Jose Tabata and Andrew McCutchen will man left field and center, respectively, for the foreseeable future.
Jones could be part of a solution in right. Gary Varsho, the recently fired outfield instructor, regularly praised his defense there. Bowker also could be in the equation, though both being left-handed clearly would not fit the platoon mold.
This position, like first base, presents a chance to go with a big bat and dismiss the defense, given PNC Park's Clemente Wall and McCutchen's ability to cover right-center. But again, other than Werth, outside solutions are not readily obvious.
Bench
If Doumit stays, he might be the main bench piece, perhaps with some outfield and active use as a catcher, a situation permitted by Walker's ability to go behind the plate in an emergency. But, beyond him and outfielder Lastings Milledge, who is no lock to be tendered through arbitration, there are mostly just questions here.
Ciriaco would not be Cedeno's backup, which means management might go to the outside for a utility infielder capable of playing shortstop. That bar has been set low, as all three such acquisitions the past three seasons -- Luis Rivas, Ramon Vazquez and Bobby Crosby -- have been poor offensively and defensively.
And do not forget Steve Pearce, capable of playing first or right. He should be fully recovered from knee surgery, and the team might succeed in getting an extra option because of his injury.
Dejan Kovacevic: dkovacevic@post-gazette.com.
Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/10264/1089057-63.stm#ixzz109vTCpCG
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