By Dejan Kovacevic
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Pittsburgh Pirates' Jack Wilson hands his hat to a fan after the Pirates' 6-2 loss to the Houston Astros in the final home game of the baseball season in Pittsburgh on Sunday, Sept. 21, 2008.
Neal Huntington does not need one of his techie assistants to do the math: The roster remaining after the Pirates' general manager executed the Jason Bay/Xavier Nady trades in July went 17-37, a .315 winning percentage that projects to 51-111 over a full season.
And that is only the beginning of the reasons why the forecast for the team's 2009 fortunes, based on current circumstances, appear thoroughly dismal:
• The roster could face further depletion if one or both of middle infielders Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez gets traded, as seems eminently possible.
• Two of the newcomers in those trades, projected as everyday players, might be non-factors: Outfielder Brandon Moss will have major knee surgery later this week, and third baseman Andy LaRoche has shown not the faintest sign that he is capable -- or deserving -- of the starting job.
• The front office has no plan to address shortcomings with significant spending. There are free-agent targets, but they come without an internal obligation to fill them up to the payroll budget limit which, at roughly $55 million, again will one of the smallest in Major League Baseball.
• Although the Milwaukee Brewers might take a step backward to free-agency, there is no cause to believe the National League Central Division will get weaker. Quite the contrary, actually.
• Oh, and should the Pirates again lose 82 or more, they are sure to draw national attention for breaking the professional sports record with a 17th consecutive losing season, adding to the embarrassment for the team and its dwindling fan base.
And make no mistake: The only year that matters to the overwhelming majority of that base is 2009, no matter how much the team stresses the future beyond it.
Pittsburgh Pirates' Nate McLouth, right, pats teammate Freddy Sanchez on the helmet after the two scored on a double by Ryan Doumit in the first inning of a baseball game against the Houston Astros in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Sept. 20, 2008.
For Huntington, this past season was his first, but that apparently does not mean he is numb to the sentiment.
"I can definitely understand the concern," Huntington said. "Obviously, August was a very rough month for this group. We played all first- and second-place teams, and we came away with not a very good record."
That was 7-21.
"But I think, going forward, that our pitching will be better. We have young players establishing themselves and getting into their routines. We're going to show up every day. Our staff is going to work hard. Our players are going to work hard. They're going to prepare. They're going to go about their business the right way. And we're going to compete to win every single night."
Competing to win and actually doing so can be cosmically separated concepts, of course, as the 2008 Pirates just illustrated: They competed as fiercely as any recent edition before the trades stripped down their offense -- and much of their life -- but still wound up with a backward step in the standings thanks to some of the worst pitching in franchise history.
So, when addressing the long list of concerns, that seems a good place to start ...
Starting pitchers
The way management is stating it, the depth chart currently consists of Paul Maholm, a surefire -- and richly deserved -- opening-day starter April 6, 2009 in St. Louis.
Beyond that is unknown.
Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Ian Snell throws against the Houston Astros in the first inning of the baseball game in Pittsburgh, Friday, Sept. 19, 2008.
Unlike last offseason, when Huntington made what might have been a rookie mistake in overestimating his rotation -- how else to explain declaring all five spots on a losing team filled before the snow had melted? -- next spring should be highlighted by as many as eight other pitchers battling for the four openings: Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny, Jeff Karstens, Zach Duke, Ross Ohlendorf, Phil Dumatrait and longer shots Jimmy Barthmaier, Jason Davis and Daniel McCutchen.
And the mix could change: There was some quiet dissatisfaction with Snell, and the Pirates can be expected to entertain trade offers. They also will explore free agency for at least one firm addition, though not an expensive one.
The Pirates also will make changes to their instruction, obviously, after the firing of pitching coach Jeff Andrews yesterday.
"We need pitchers who are aggressive and throw strikes," Huntington said. "We need to change our mindset as a staff."
Bullpen
Here again, the battle is mostly wide open, only Matt Capps and John Grabow being informed by Huntington that they are locks.
The Pirates will pursue a setup man through free agency, probably right-handed, which could reduce Tyler Yates' role and workload after a season in which he clearly wore down.
Pittsburgh Pirates relief pitcher Matt Capps, left celebrates the Pirates' win with catcher Ryan Doumit after getting a save in the ninth inning of the baseball game against the Houston Astros in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Sept. 20, 2008. The Pirates won 6-4.
Yates and Sean Burnett are excellent bets to return. Presuming the free-agent addition, that would leave two real openings with one of those being for a long man.
Denny Bautista's late-season control issues might have shaken management's confidence to the point he is not tendered an arbitration contract, especially with Jesse Chavez showing superior stuff -- if not execution -- in September. T.J. Beam, whose rights are retained, will be in the mix, possibly for the long role. And it is highly likely that one of the losers in the starting competition will be considered for it, too.
Catcher
That will be Ryan Doumit, who drew the intense respect of manager John Russell this past season not only for his .318 average and 15 home runs but also for his revitalized work ethic.
But Doumit is no finished product: Although his receiving improved after being a glaring weakness, his game-calling with the pitching staff and handling of baserunners has to improve by just as much to achieve average status defensively.
The backup is unknown.
Raul Chavez fit the role well, especially on defense, but he will be 36, and management is considering other options. One will be Robinzon Diaz, who came in the Jose Bautista trade and has a reputation for good contact at the plate, as well as good defense. Another, though seemingly distant, is Ronny Paulino, who fell out of favor with Russell and pretty much everyone in authority after a lackluster spring and start to his season.
That makes a trade of Paulino likely. He probably would have been dealt at the past deadline -- the Florida Marlins were plenty interested -- except that his ankle was hurt.
Infielders
Adam LaRoche could end up with a $2 million raise above his $5 million salary from this past season, though the Pirates might have some leverage through the arbitration process because of LaRoche's maddening tendency to remain dormant until June.
At any rate, he will return, largely because there is so little power left in the way of the Bay/Nady trades.
"The biggest hole, as you look at us on paper, is power," Huntington said.
Sanchez is a good bet to return, partly because there are no adequate replacements and partly because giving up Wilson and Sanchez would bring too great a blow. But his salary rises to $6.1 million, and his troubled first half this season did not provide much value. Unlike last year, when potential suitors at the Winter Meetings were rebuffed in asking about Sanchez, the phone this time will be answered.
Pittsburgh Pirates' Freddy Sanchez breaks his bat as he fouls off a pitch during the first inning of a baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers, Wednesday, Sept. 24, 2008, in Milwaukee.
Wilson probably will go.
His pay jumps to $7.25 million, which would be highest on the team, and he did not make a positive first impression on new management by missing half of this season to a strained calf and broken finger. In fact, seeing all the grossly inadequate defensive play of those who replaced Wilson might have exacerbated their frustration at his absence.
The fan base made clear its feelings about Wilson last week at PNC Park by giving him a thunderous standing ovation for what likely was his final at-bat in Pittsburgh, but team president Frank Coonelly and Huntington have repeated time and again that they will not make moves based on popularity. The Bay/Nady trades duly illustrated that.
"It's not in my mindset to go into this offseason looking to trade any particular player," Huntington said. "If there's a good baseball trade out there for anybody, hey, we're not good enough to have untouchables."
It seems inconceivable that someone who performed as poorly as Andy LaRoche could be a lock at third base, so management probably will, at the least, go through some motions to make it seem as if there is competition for the job. In reality, there will be none. Prospect Neil Walker is not ready, as his dismal .280 on-base percentage at Class AAA Indianapolis showed. And, maybe most important, LaRoche's pedigree is that of an elite prospect, and the Pirates, having invested so much to acquire him, are not about to give up.
From the bench standpoint, Doug Mientkiewicz probably will not be brought back, despite Huntington's statement over the weekend that the team will approach him about a new contract. Mientkiewicz, a fiery competitor who tells it like it is in all situations, seemed a poor match for the post-trade Pirates, and his work as a super-utility player should get him better offers this winter than last.
Veterans Chris Gomez and Luis Rivas also probably will not be brought back because the Pirates will seek cheaper options. Gomez made $1 million, Rivas $650,000.
That means the Pirates will need not only to acquire a starting shortstop if Wilson is traded -- there are none in the system close to his pedigree, even potentially -- but also bench help. And this time, unlike last year when Gomez was signed with the understanding that he could back up at short when he clearly could not, they will need to make sure the bench help can handle the most difficult position.
Outfield
The Pirates had the most productive outfield in the majors, elected to blow it up with the Bay/Nady trades and now are left with maybe the most uncertain -- possibly the least productive -- outfield in the majors heading into 2009.
Nate McLouth will be back in center, of course, after a breakout season of 26 home runs and 94 RBIs. It might be a bit much to ask for the same amount next year -- especially the freakish RBI total from the top of the order -- but he displayed enough consistency this summer that confidence is merited.
Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Nyjer Morgan, left, nearly collides with right fielder Steve Pearce (51) while catching ball hit by Milwaukee Brewers' J.J. Hardy during the seventh inning of a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 24, 2008, in Milwaukee. The Brewers won 4-2.
The road map from here had Moss manning right field, where he might blossom into a power hitter in the Nady mold, and top prospect Andrew McCutchen making it to Pittsburgh at some point in 2009 either to take over in center or go to a corner spot.
The McCutchen scenario remains viable, especially if he shows more power with Indianapolis, but Moss' status leaves the rest out of whack. Nyjer Morgan was a dynamic offensive figure after his Aug. 19 recall, batting .347 mostly at leadoff and scoring 20 runs. He could start out in left, maybe even entrench himself in some form. But a hole remains glaring, and it might be there that Huntington seeks to put that power he is seeking through free agency.
The team genuinely wants to have Jason Michaels back as the fourth or fifth outfielder, and Michaels feels likewise.
"We'd like to keep the veteran leadership that Jason and Doug provided, if not from them then from someone else," Huntington said. "We realize that it's not productive to run an all-young roster out there."
Young roster.
Playing hard.
Competing to win.
Going about one's business.
Pittsburgh Pirates' Adam LaRoche is greeted in the dugout after hitting a fifth-inning grand slam off Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Chad Billingsley in a baseball game in Pittsburgh on Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2008.
Put it all together, and it sounds not much different than the previews for pretty much every season since 1993. But no one involved is apologizing, steadfastly maintaining that the correct path toward build a legitimate contender is to stockpile a wealth of young talent.
"We're building," Huntington said. "There are teams that have had surprising, successful runs with similar talent to what we feel we'll be putting on the field. Does that mean it's going to happen? We believe that, through hard work and some potential moves for us this offseason if they're there, and if we have some guys who step forward like Nate, Paul and Ryan, we could make things very interesting next year."
If not, the Pirates will make history.
"The bottom line is that we want to put a championship-caliber organization in place," Huntington said to that topic. "We're not striving to get to 82 wins. As a part of the process? As a step? Absolutely. But not the end goal. My focus is to get the best 25 players in Pittsburgh, sooner rather than later, that will help us get to the playoffs."
In this particular baseball setting, then, the question might be this: How soon is now?
Dejan Kovacevic can be reached at dkovacevic@post-gazette.com.
First published on September 30, 2008 at 12:02 am
