Bob Smizik: Pirates Improved Play Should Not Be Dismissed

Sunday, September 24, 2006
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

The Pirates' surprisingly improved play hasn't created much more than a tiny ripple of interest in this Steelers-obsessed town, but it's worthy of examination, even on a day when the Bengals are at Heinz Field.

For starters, let's dismiss the notion held by many that this success is nothing more than another Pirates late-season run with the pressure off that won't translate into any kind of success next year. Since 2001 the Pirates have historically played better before Aug. 1 than after. Only once since PNC Park opened, in 2003, has the team done better in the final two months than in the first four. Over the past six years, the Pirates have a winning percentage of .442 in the first four months of the season and .410 in the final two.

So this is something new and, yes, is something worthy of attention -- with this caveat. The pressure is off. The Pirates began to play well when their season was over. That doesn't make their accomplishments meaningless, but it must be taken into account.

All the important players will be back next season barring, of course, trades. A nucleus is in place. But that's all it is. Much more needs to be done.

For example, the last time the Pirates were good, in the early 1990s, the nucleus of that team -- Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonilla, Andy Van Slyke, Doug Drabek and John Smiley -- was in place by 1987. But that team had only one winning season over the next three and reached championship-caliber status only after significant other parts were added.

Obviously, the Pirates don't have that kind of talent to build around. But for the first time in a long time they have decent talent returning, and of greater significance, that talent is under their control for several more years.

The most heartening turn of events for the Pirates is the general decline of the National League Central. For the Pirates to reach .500 or better, it's not just a matter of how good they are, it's a matter of how good the rest of the division is. Since 1998, the first year the Central became a six-team division, no team has finished fourth and been at or above .500. Which means for the Pirates to have any hope of reaching .500, they have to be better than three other Central Division teams.

It's too early to make any kind of prediction for 2007 but the division is coming back to the Pirates. Perennial powers St. Louis and Houston, are in decline. Cincinnati made a run this year, but there's a lot not to like about that team. Milwaukee went backward after reaching .500 in 2005 and the Cubs came apart this season and will finish last.
Which means third place is within reach.

Here's why the Pirates have a chance next season to reach .500:

Not enough can be said about the fact their young starters, Ian Snell, Zach Duke and Paul Maholm, have pitched the entire season and gained valuable experience. Snell has been a major surprise. It's more impressive that he was 8-6 when the team was 30 games under .500 than it is that he's 14-10 and with a chance to be the team's first 15-game winner since Todd Ritchie in 1999. After a poor start, Duke looks like a long-term fixture at the top of the rotation. Maholm has been adequate, at best. But those three, along with rookie Tom Gorzelanny, have the makings of a strong rotation in the future. A veteran right-hander must be added.

The earned run average of the bullpen is fifth best in the National League. Mike Gonzalez had a good year as closer, and Salomon Torres and Matt Capps are capable setup men on the right side, as is John Grabow on the left.

Freddy Sanchez opened the season as a utility player and probably will finish it as the National League batting champion. Jason Bay has the look of a perennial All-Star, a 30-home run, 100-RBI player. Jack Wilson needs to lose some weight so he can become the shortstop he once was but that is more than likely to happen. Catcher Ronny Paulino will hit over .300. It's too early to call him the catcher for the next five years, but he could be.

Here's why they might not reach .500:

Jose Castillo has been a major disappointment. He has slowed in the field and his bat is erratic. In late May he hit six home runs in five games. He hit only five in his next 226 at bats. He's batting .226 since the end of May. Worse, he had four hits in his first 51 at-bats (.078) in September. He is definitely available on the trading market, but who would want him and what could the Pirates get in return?

Jose Bautista looked like a definite building block for the future either at third base or in the outfield when he smacked 10 home runs in 145 at bats after being recalled from the minors in May. In his next 226 at bats, he hit only five home runs. Of greater concern is his August-September batting average of .197 (26 for 132) going into the weekend.

Chris Duffy is having a spectacular September, batting .347 after a .229 August. The Pirates must make a major decision on him. Is he the guy or do they have to go out and get someone like Juan Pierre.

Xavier Nady is batting .311 as a Pirate but with only three home runs and 19 RBIs in 167 at bats going into the weekend. The Pirates need more than that from a first baseman/right fielder.
The chance for .500 is there. Much will depend on the rest of the division and much will depend on what improvements general manager Dave Littlefield can make.