Bob Smizik: Steelers' season still up for grabs

Steelers right the ship, but season's course remains mystery
Wednesday, October 18, 2006
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

The events of Sunday -- a Steelers win and losses by Cincinnati and Baltimore -- served to right a season gone wrong, but in no way should they be taken to mean all is well. In the case of the Steelers' victory against Kansas City, it was one win and achieved against a team of questionable ability. The Steelers are back in the AFC North Division race and the hunt for another Super Bowl championship, but still of unknown quality.

They should remain a North Division contender the remainder of the season, if for no other reason than the Bengals, believed to be their toughest competition, play a ridiculously tough schedule. In the next five weeks, the record of the Bengals' combined opponents is 20-7.
But, whether the Steelers have the stuff of another Super Bowl run and exactly how good they are has yet to be determined.

Their immediate schedule -- a road game Sunday against the 3-2 Falcons and the dangerous Michael Vick, a laugher at hapless Oakland and a Heinz Field-meeting with Denver, a 4-1 team that has allowed only 37 points -- isn't the most daunting of challenges but should put the team in a clearer light.

To suggest the Steelers are not a quality team might be blasphemy to some. After all, they're the Super Bowl champs. That is a convincing argument, but let's not forget that before they won their final four games in the 2005 regular season to squeeze into the playoffs, they were 7-5.
They're 2-3 today. That comes to 9-8 in 17 games and definitely average if -- and that's a large if -- the Super Bowl run was an aberration.

That's not to suggest it was, but it could have been. If the Steelers continue to lose with pretty much the same roster that finished last season -- and seven of their remaining 11 games are against teams with a better record -- the Super Bowl will remain a shining moment and a wonderful memory, but meaningless in terms of the 2006 season.

But the fact they were 15-1 in 2004 lends credence to the belief that the Super Bowl run was legitimate. But let's see how this plays out.

Any team with Vick, arguably the best athlete in the NFL, poses problems. Coach Bill Cowher yesterday called Vick "a nightmare to defend," and no one would suggest he was guilty of coaching hyperbole. In preparing for such an offense, an appropriate question to be asked is this: Do the Steelers have the defenders to handle a nightmare?

A return to health of outside linebacker Joey Porter would be a big boost to the Steelers' hopes of defending Vick. With Porter, who is doubtful for Sunday and who didn't play against Kansas City, the defense is a considerably better unit. His top backup, James Harrison, is out, which means Arnold Harrison could be making his second NFL start. Arnold Harrison played well enough against Kansas City, but he'll be challenged considerably more by the Falcons.

NFL stats indicate one troubling trend with the Steelers' defense. They ranked ninth overall among the 32 teams, which is good but not necessarily as good as the Steelers normally are.
What is disquieting about that ninth ranking is that of the Steelers' five opponents, only one, San Diego, is having a good offensive season. The Chargers rank third in offense, but Jacksonville is 16th, Cincinnati 19th, Miami 21st and Kansas City 26th.

If the Steelers' defense ranks ninth after playing teams whose offenses average a combined 17th, it makes you wonder what they'll do against better offenses.

Which brings us back to Atlanta, which has the No. 1 rushing offense in the league. Warrick Dunn, 31 and in his 10th NFL season, is fifth in the league in rushing with 511 yards, leading Cowher to wonder if Dunn had discovered the "fountain of youth."

Vick has carried 46 times for 401 yards, making him the 16th-leading rusher in the NFL. Rookie Jerious Norwood, described by Cowher as having "unbelievable speed," is averaging 7.5 yards per carry on 30 attempts. All three are exceedingly dangerous. Dunn has run 90 yards for a touchdown, Norwood 78 and Vick 34.

It's an imposing challenge, although somewhat lessened by Vick's questionable passing skills. But it's another step forward in determining who the Steelers are and how far they can go.