Bob Smizik: Are Pirates trying to fool us with recent surge?

Freddy Sanchez congratulates Adam LaRoche after hitting a two-run home run in the sixth inning on Wednesday at PNC Park.

Monday, July 09, 2007

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

So what are we to make of these new-look Pirates, the winners of nine of their past 13 games? What are we to think of this team that is fresh off winning two of three from the Chicago Cubs and three of four from the Milwaukee Brewers, clubs that represent the elite of the National League Central?

Is 14 years of losing evaporating right before our eyes?

Anything is possible in athletic competition, even the absurd notion of a winning season by the Pirates, who last had one in 1992.

But let's take a minute to deal with some realities. The Pirates' record after their 6-2 win against the Cubs yesterday at PNC Park is 40-48. That is the same record they had in 2003 after 88 games. It is one game worse than the record they had after 88 games in 2004 and it is one game better than their 88-game record in 2002 and 2005.

And we know how those seasons turned out.

Nor can we forget June 11, 2005, when a similar level of high expectations and all-around giddiness was in place when the Pirates raised their record to 30-30 with an 18-2 win against Tampa Bay. That team went on to finish 28 games under. 500.

So the question is this: Have the Pirates truly found their stride or is this a momentary aberration that will fade when play begins Friday in Atlanta after the All-Star break?

There are plenty of reasons to believe this team can continue to play well and three of them start with the middle of the lineup.

After playing mostly well below expectations for three months, Adam LaRoche is 17 for 40 (.425) in the past 10 games, with 5 homers, 5 doubles and 11 RBIs. He won't continue to hit that well, but there's reason to believe he's ready to remain the potent slugger he was expected to be when the Pirates acquired him from the Braves.

Jason Bay snapped a horrendous slump in which he was 18 for 120 (.150) since the end of May with a home run and four RBIs yesterday. Bay has been too good a player for too long to believe he won't resume being one of the better offensive outfielders in the National League.

With 14 home runs and 50 RBIs, Xavier Nady is establishing himself as the middle-of-the-lineup presence the Pirates so badly needed to go along with Bay and LaRoche. Of particular significance, Nady is handling right-handed pitching like never before. His slugging percentage (total bases divided by at-bats) is .505 against right-handed pitching.

All three have 50 or more RBIs, and when was the last time the Pirates could say that at the All-Star break?

The emergence of Nady has allowed manager Jim Tracy to regularly bat Freddy Sanchez second, a position that better suits him than the No. 3 spot in the lineup he held down most of the season.

If Ryan Doumit, who was out yesterday with a strained left hamstring, can continue to hit as well as he has, the Pirates have a solid two through six in their batting order.

What the team doesn't have is a competent leadoff man in front of those batters. It remains a gaping hole.

Equally as important as the emergence of Nady has been the surfacing of Paul Maholm as a competent starter to go along with Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell. In his past nine starts, Maholm has gone seven or more innings seven times. During that stretch his earned run average is 3.96. If that were his season-long ERA, it would place him 18th in the league, one spot in front of Philadelphia's celebrated Cole Hamels.

With two good starts in as many tries since being recalled from the minors, Shane Youman might be a fourth quality starter. Youman gave up two runs in six innings yesterday against the Cubs, which is what he did in a win against Milwaukee last week.

The bullpen has solidified with Shawn Chacon becoming a formidable setup man for Matt Capps. Chacon retired the six batters he faced in the seventh and eighth against the Cubs before turning the game over to Capps. Forget his torturous four attempts as a starter this season. In 29 games out of the bullpen, Chacon has an ERA of 2.79.

All of this is to indicate the Pirates have not gone 9-4, including 5-2 against the Brewers and Cubs, by a giant stroke of luck. They've earned the wins with good play.

The downside is no one knows how long this will last. There are too many players without proven track records. Nady might revert to being semi-helpless against right-handed pitching. Chacon could melt down, as might Capps, who has never closed before. LaRoche could cool considerably. Bay, it might turn out, is having an awful year, not an awful five weeks.

Baseball is about being good over the long haul, not 13 games or even 30 games. Seventy-four games remain. The story of the 2007 Pirates will be etched by those games. In the meantime, all anyone can do is enjoy it while they can.


(Bob Smizik can be reached at bsmizik@post-gazette.com.)