For Andrew McCutchen to be NL MVP, he needs help in winning numbers game

By Stan McNeal
The Sporting News
August 18, 2012

ST. LOUIS—For four-plus months, Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen has been putting up MVP numbers. He leads the National League in batting (.360), runs (85) and slugging (.605).

But with less than seven weeks left in the season, those numbers could be McCutchen’s biggest obstacle to actually winning an MVP.

Andrew McCutchen scores one of the Pirates' two runs on Friday. The Bucs' MVP candidate is the NL leader in that category. (AP Photo)

How’s that?

Well, as McCutchen’s numbers have risen to superstar level, so has his reputation. A year ago, he probably was the one guy whom Pirates’ opponents would not let beat them. Nowadays, there’s no question. About the only strikes he sees are mistakes.

“Around the All-Star break, he got everybody’s attention,” Pirates manager Clint Hurdle says. “When you get people’s attention, they have to try something different and he’s obviously being pitched differently.”

The caution pitchers are exercising against the dynamic three-hole hitter is not unlike the treatment given to any dangerous hitter, of course, but there’s a difference for McCutchen. He doesn’t have Andre Ethier hitting behind him, as Matt Kemp does, or Carlos Beltran, who follows Matt Holliday. Fellow MVP candidate Buster Posey, the San Francisco Giants' catcher and cleanup hitter, had Melky Cabrera hitting ahead of him for two-thirds of the season.

As a group, Pirates cleanup hitters rank among the least productive in the NL. They’re tied for 11th in homers (18) and RBIs (72) and their .267 batting average is seven points below the league average.

The lack of a consistent four-hole force is why I believe McCutchen’s chances of winning the MVP rest almost as much on Garrett Jones as on the man himself, since Jones has claimed the role as Pittsburgh’s primary cleanup hitter. The more Jones hits, the less pitchers can dance around McCutchen.

Agree, Mr. Jones?

“That could help,” he says. “Andrew is a good hitter and he is a smart hitter. He’s patient enough to wait for a pitch to hit.”

This year, he has been. Last year, not so much. When the Pirates collapsed in the second half, McCutchen tried to carry them on his shoulders, no small task for someone listed at 5-10, 175. The results weren’t pretty.

After hitting .291/.390/.505 and making the All-Star team, McCutchen went .216/.330/.392 after the break and did not receive even a 10th-place vote for MVP.

As pitchers have become more cautious with McCutchen in 2012, he hasn’t kept up his first-half pace, at least in the power department. He hit four homers in the first five games after the break but has managed only two to go with seven RBIs in his past 29 games. Still, he’s been just as valuable. McCutchen leads the NL in walks since the break and ranks in the top five in runs. When Jones hit two three-run homers on Thursday, McCutchen was on base for both via walks. Apparently, he has learned his lesson about trying to do too much.

“He has grown up right in front of us,” Hurdle says.

McCutchen, 25, is not as impressed with his second half as is his manager. He studies his numbers and what he’s seen lately isn’t satisfying. He admits pitchers’ approaches “have something to do with that” but he points out that his strikeout-to-walk ratio actually has slipped since last year.

“I put up some pretty good numbers the past few months but I haven’t been doing what I was doing or what I should be doing,” he says. “To some, it might be OK. But I know I’m better and I know I’ll get back up to that pace.”

McCutchen is being hard on himself—after all, he’s hitting .353 with a .455 OBP since the break—but he could use a boost in the (overrated) RBI department to maintain his status as MVP front-runner. He has 72 to lead the Pirates but has fallen out of the NL top 10.

Injuries have pretty much ended the MVP chances for the early front-runners, Kemp andCincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto, but Posey continues to hit like he wants more than Comeback Player of the Year. Because McCutchen is playing Gold Glove defense and Posey also plays a premium defensive position, the difference likely will come down to offense and team success.

Coincidentally, the most recent MVP for the Giants also was the most recent MVP for the Pirates. That would be seven-time winner Barry Bonds, who won twice with the Pirates, the second time in 1992, before moving to San Francisco. The Pirates haven’t had a winning season or a player finish in top 10 in MVP voting in the 19 years since.

To end their record streak of losing seasons, the Pirates need to finish 16-27. To claim MVP, McCutchen needs to keep doing what he’s done—and for Jones to keep hitting like he has in August (.373 with 15 RBIs in 16 games).

“I wouldn’t want to put that kind of responsibility on Garrett,” Hurdle says. “But I’ll tell you this, if they throw McCutchen strikes, he’ll win the MVP.”