July 29, 2013
Jake Westbrook and Nelson Liriano face off in tonight's series opener.
It is my privilege to present a flurry of notes on the Cardinals @ Pirates series, and I cleaned up a couple of typos from my first run-through. (Having a bad typing day.)
ANYWAY...
* I've mentioned this before. Here it is again... one of the most interesting aspects of this matchup is the Cardinals' prowess at hitting with runners in scoring position, and the Pirates' stinginess in pitching with runners in scoring position. The Cardinals lead the majors with a .338 batting average RISP. Pirates pitchers have allowed a .221 average with RISP, and that's the lowest, the best, in the majors. Same with RISP and two outs: Cardinals are first with a .319 average; Pirates have allowed the lowest average (.222) with RISP/2.
* More RISP: Pirates' hitters have MLB's worst batting average in the majors with runners in scoring position at .222.
* The Cardinals have lost 10 of their last 15 games played against Pittsburgh. Not counting Interleague contests, here are the best records against the Cardinals since the start of last season: Atlanta 8-1, Pittsburgh 11-9, LA Dodgers 7-7, Philadelphia 7-7.
* Defense could be a real factor in this series.Broadcasters generally get caught up in praising the Cardinals' defense based on low error count. First of all, official scoring is subjective so beware of putting too much value in raw errors totals. I prefer to cite more advanced statistics that take fielding range into account. Defensive Efficiency, for example. (Simply: what percentage of batted balls in play does a defense convert into outs?) According to the Defensive Efficiency rankings at Baseball Prospectus, the Pirates are No. 1 in the majors at 73.3 percent. The Cardinals are 25th at 70.3 percent.
* More on the defense with Team Runs Saved at Bill James Online: The Pirates are 3rd in the majors with 41 Defensive Runs Saved; the Cardinals are 27th with minus 27 DRS.
* In case you're wondering, the only "plus" rating defensive positions for the Cardinals this season are catcher, shortstop and right field. The Pirates have "plus" defenders at pitcher, catcher, 2B, 3B, SS, LF and CF.
* The Cardinals are a better baserunning team than the Pirates and this has little to do with stolen bases. Based on Base Running Runs tracked by Baseball Prospectus the Cards are ranked 12th, the Pirates 21st. The Cardinals score well in advancing runners an extra base on hits.
* The Pirates are a problematic matchup for the Cardinals' procession of RH batters; RH hitters are batting .222 against the Pirates this season. That's the lowest BA allowed to RH batters by a MLB pitching staff. Same with combined onbase+slugging percentage; Pirates pitchers rank No. 1 with an OPS allowed to RH batters (.638.)
* Tonight's STL starter, Jake Westbrook, has awful career numbers vs. Pittsburgh. But I throw out the total career stats; it doesn't matter what Westbrook did against hitters that no longer play for the Pirates.
Here, then, is a brief breakdown of current Pirates vs. Westbrook:
Andrew McCutchen 9 for 25, .360
Pedro Alvarez 12 for 21, .571, with two HRs and two doubles.
Jose Tabata 10 for 24, .417
Neil Walker 6 for 17, .353
Starling Marte 2 for 7
Garrett Jones 5 for 21, .238
Clint Barmes 7 for 24, .292
Russell Martin 0 for 2
Jody Mercer 0 for 3
* Small sample on Westbrook this season: he's 5-0 with a 1.28 ERA at home and 2-4 with a 4.50 ERA on the road.
* The Cardinals haven't seen much of tonight's starter, Francisco Liriano. Only two current Cardinals have faced Liriano: Matt Holliday is 1 for 2, and backup catcher Rob Johnsonis 1 for 9.
* Liriano is having an outstanding season. He's 10-4 with a 2.23 ERA. That ERA ranks 4th in the NL (minimum 14 starts.) Liriano ranks 6th among NL starters with a strikeout rate of 9.34 per nine innings. Liriano, a lefthander, has held LH batters to a .116 average; they're 8 for 69 against him.
* Obviously you would expect Cards manager Mike Matheny to stack his lineup with RH bats versus Liriano. But Liriano is tough on them, too. RH hitters are batting .241 with a .317 OBP and .327 slugging percentage against him.
* This is Liriano's basic approach against RH batters: high percentage of first-pitch fastballs. When he's ahead in the count he turns mostly to his slider and changeup. When he's behind in the count, he goes with the fastball more but isn't predictable; he'll mix in many sliders and changes. When Liriano has a two-strike count he uses the fastball only 18 percent of the time and tries to put the batter away with a slider or change.
(By the way, I'll provide pitching-matchup info for the other four games in this series but will save it for the day of the games.)
* Like most pitchers, Liriano is vulnerable when his fastball ends up down the middle. But RH batters have had success against him (.417 BA) by driving his outside pitches to right field, or right center. Liriano effectively pitches inside against RH batters; that's been a particular weakness for the Cardinals this season.
* The Pirates are without their closer, Jason Grilli, who has a right forearm strain that is expected to keep him on the DL for four to eight weeks. Mark Melancon, the 2013 All-Star setup man, has moved into the closer's role. He's converted 4 of 5 save opps so far this season. He saved 20 of 25 for Houston in 2011. Melancon has an 0.91 ERA. His preferred pitch is the cutter. Overall Melancon has a dandy swing-miss rate of 30 percent this season.
* The Pirates' bullpen is strong; perhaps that will change due to Grilli's absence and the shifting roles of their relievers. But the Pirates have two very good LH relievers in Justin Wilsonand Tony Watson and three effective RH setup relievers in Jeanmar Gomez, Bryan Morrisand Vin Mazzano. Pittsburgh is 3rd in MLB with a save percentage of 81 pct. The Pirates are allowing only 18.4 percent of inherited runners to score, the best rate in the majors and one of the best in modern MLB history.
* The lefties, Wilson and Watson, have combined to limit LH batters to 24 hits in 123 at-bats, an average of .195.
* The Cardinals have received outstanding contributions from rookie pitchers. So have the Pirates. Rookie starter Gerrit Cole, who won't pitch in this series, is 5-4 with a 3.56 ERA. But rookie relievers Wilson and Morris have combined for 10 wins. Wilson has a 2.11 ERA; Morris has a 2.84 ERA. Pirates rookie pitchers are 15-9 this season.
* The Pirates often struggle offensively. They rank 24th in the majors with 3.86 runs per game, and are 22nd in onbase percentage (.309), 20th in slugging (.389) and have MLB's second-worst strikeout rate. Pirates hitters strike out once every 4.39 plate appearances. (The Cardinals are the fourth-toughest team to strike out.)
* The Pirates depend on the longball more than the Cardinals do. According to Baseball Prospectus, the Pirates have scored 35.6 percent of their runs via the HR; that ranks 13th in MLB. The Cardinals rank 28th with 27.3 percent of the runs coming via the homer.
* The Pirates have played a lot of close games; 63 have been decided by one or two runs. They're 19-15 in one-run games, 18-11 in two-run games. The Cardinals are 13-10 in one-run games, 10-14 in two-run games.
* The Pirates are 21-20 in games against teams that currently have a winning record. The Cardinals are 14-19 against those teams and 17-20 against opponents that presently are .500 or better. Starting tonight the Cardinals have 32 games left against teams that have winning records: 14 vs. Pittsburgh, 10 vs. Cincinnati and four each against the LA Dodgers and Atlanta.
* The Pirates are 44-2 when taking a lead into the 7th inning this season. The Cardinals are 52-6 in those situations.
* The Pirates have 24 comeback wins; the Cardinals have 18. The Pirates have six walk-off wins; the Cardinals have one.
* The Pirates have the No. 1 starting-pitching ERA in the majors, 3.24. But three things about that: (A) first, their fielding-independent rotation ERA of 3.75 ranks 8th; the Cardinals' rotation FIP, 3.22, ranks 1st; (B) the Pirates have 50 quality starts and the Cards have 58; (C) Pirates starters rank 14th in the NL for innings pitched; the Cardinals are 5th. That's one of the big questions hanging over the Pirates; will their rotation hold? Only three NL bullpens have thrown more innings than Pittsburgh's. The Pirates need to get more innings from their starters.
* This series will showcase two of the best defensive catchers in baseball. Pittsburgh'sRussell Martin has thrown out 44.4 percent of stealers this season (20 of 45). Yadier Molinahas thrown out 12 of 29, for 41.3 percent. Martin's catcher ERA is 3.03, best in the majors. Molina is fourth with a 3.20 catcher ERA. Martin has been an excellent addition to the Pirates in 2013.
Martin and Molina have been dealing with sore knees. With backup catcher Michael McKenrybanged up, the Pirates have recalled rookie catcher Tony Sanchez, their No. 12-ranked prospect.
* This is why the Pirates are presumably shopping for a right fielder: this season, their RFs have combined to bat .228 with 9 homers, 36 RBIs, a .288 OBP and a .362 slugging pct. The Pirates acquired Travis Snyder from Toronto last summer, hoping he'd turn into a fixture in RF. It hasn't happened. He was placed on the DL Sunday.
I don't think I left out anything.
Thanks for reading ...
-Bernie
No comments:
Post a Comment