Cardinals as villains?

BY BERNIE MIKLASZ bjmiklasz@post-dispatch.com
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/
October 3, 2013

Andrew McCutchen and Matt Carpenter

If you’d take a poll of baseball fans who don’t cite the Cardinals as their favorite team, I’m certain the results would show that America is rooting for the Pittsburgh Pirates to win the NL division series.

Unless you’re a Cardinals loyalist, what’s not to like about the Pirates? The Bucs have energy, enthusiasm and freshness and personify everything lovable about the underdog spirit that built this great country ... or something like that.

In the summer of 2013 the Pirates found their way out of the darkness of losing. They escaped their miserable existence by breaking free and shouting out loud with unbridled joy ... think of Jesse Pinkman at the end of “Breaking Bad.”

Between 1993 and 2012 the Pittsburgh franchise lost more games (1,796) than any team in MLB. To Pirates fans the count must have seemed like 17,000 losses.

We’ve been fortunate here. The Cardinals have a rich and illustrious history, and current chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. continues to add championship trophies to the team’s baseball fine-art collection.

Since DeWitt became owner in 1996, the Cardinals have won two World Series and three league pennants and have the most postseason victories (57) by an NL franchise. They enter the 2013 postseason in search of a 12th World Series championship.

As Pirates manager Clint Hurdle said, “They are a team that many look to when you try to model success.”

This also makes the Cardinals the NL’s version of the New York Yankees — well, minus the daily psychodrama, bizarro world A-Rod obsession and preposterously wasteful payroll.

There are some commonalities, however. The Cardinals are usually very good and frequently in the postseason. The Cardinals routinely appear on the nation’s TV screens in the fall, irritating rival teams and fans with their cool confidence, omnivorous appetite for more postseason success and an inherent sense of October entitlement.

And why do the Cardinals come across this way? Because they’ve attained special status, and they know it — because they’ve earned it. Repeatedly.

When Game 1 starter Adam Wainwright was asked if he’d have to calm his nerves before Thursday’s game at Busch Stadium, the ace threw a knockdown pitch for an answer.

“No,” Wainwright said. “I mean, we have a long history of playoff games here.”

Later Wainwright offered a testimonial to the “Cardinal Way.” And that’s right up there with the “Best Fans in Baseball” proclamations on the list of things that really, really annoy envious outsiders. (Especially in Cincinnati, tee-hee.)

I’d guess that 97 percent of the neutral baseball fans in these 50 United States would be delighted to see the Pirates of Penance knock the Birds off the Bat, out of the division series, and into the offseason.

“Our strategy from day one is to always worry about ourselves and play our game,” said GM John Mozeliak — somewhat haughtily. “In terms of who people want to see win, I really don’t know. I think my neighbors want to see us win, so that’s good.”

Yes, the Pirates are America’s team going into this one.

And those heartless bullies in Cardinal red had best leave the little darlings alone, so the Pirates can continue on their merry way, inspiring all of the day-dream believers out there who love “Rocky,” the 1980 U.S. Olympic hockey team, “Rudy” and early-round NCAA upsets.

PNC is now PC in Pittsburgh. With the NFL Steelers suddenly all Rams-like in their hideousness, and the NHL Penguins just getting started, the Pirates’ proud vessel is now standing-room only.

The coldblooded Cardinals wouldn’t dare disappoint America by spoiling this heartwarming, uplifting, underdog tale ... would they? How could they Cardinals possibly take “Seabiscuit” down to defeat?

Here’s how:

1. Win the first two games of the NLDS and make it virtually impossible for the Pirates to come back. But if the Cardinals allow the Pirates to win one of the first two games at Busch Stadium, it’s danger time. Going back to the 2000 postseason, 35 teams have opened the best-of-five division series by doing no worse than splitting the first two games. And 24 of the 35 proceeded to win the series.

2. Starting pitching rules: Over the past 10 postseasons, the team that finished with the lower (better) starting-pitching ERA won 32 of the 40 division series.

3. Winning the RISP showdown. The Cardinals led the majors with a .330 batting average with runners in scoring position this season. From the start of the season through July 24, the Pirates pitchers were the best in the majors at denying runs when threatened with runners in scoring position; opposing batters hit only .216 in those RISP situations.

But the Pirates’ pitchers gradually regressed to the mean; from July 25 on, their pitchers allowed a .289 average with RISP. In their nine wins over the Pirates the Cardinals hit .378; in the 10 losses to the Bucs that RISP average was .183.

4. The Cardinals will ask multiple rookies to secure as many as the nine final nine outs to preserve late-inning leads. If Carlos Martinez, Seth Maness, Kevin Siegrist and Trevor Rosenthal can hold the Pirates down, their strong grip could tilt the series in Cards’ favor. If not? Uh-oh.

5. Hope to be kissed by the gods of October randomness. The best regular-season teams don’t always win. Most of the time an unexpected piece of drama flips the script and sets off primal screams.

A few shorthand examples from recent Cardinals’ postseasons: So Taguchi homering off NY Mets closer Billy Wagner, Shea Stadium, 2006 NLCS Game 2. ... Jeff Weaver, three postseason wins, 2006. .... Anthony Reyes outpitching Detroit’s Justin Verlander to win Game 1 of the 2006 World Series. ... All things David Freese, 2011. ... Pete Kozma, game-winning hit in the ninth inning of NLDS Game 5.

The Cardinals are the best team in the National League.

The Pirates are the best story in baseball.

The Cardinals have an immense legacy.

The Pirates have newfound legitimacy.

These teams compete in the same division but live in separate worlds. And when history meets hysteria, we’re in for thrilling entertainment.

Watch "Breakfast with Bernie," each weekday, sponsored by Papa John's, where you get 40 percent off regular price menu items the day after a Cardinals victory. Use promo code "CARDSWIN" at checkout. 10% of purchase price benefits Siteman Cancer Center.