By Tim Benz
July 29, 2018
Pirates general manager Neal Huntington smiles on the field before a game against the Mets Friday. (Tribune-Review)
The more Pirates general manager Neal Huntington talked, the more the similarities made sense.
And the more clear the answer seems to be.
Appearing on his 93.7 FM radio show before his team’s 1-0 loss to the Mets on Sunday , Huntington flashed back to the 2014 season as part of a discussion regarding the decision-making process as this week’s trade deadline approaches.
“As we started play before this Mets series, we had about a 20 percent chance to make the playoffs. Even after the remarkable run (of 11 straight wins),” Huntington said.
In fact, it was a touch lower than that, at 17 percent, according to FanGraphs . A quick check of that data also corroborates what Huntington said a few moments later.
“On Sept. 4, 2014, we had a 22 percent chance of making the playoffs,” Huntington continued. “In 2014, we did not add (at the deadline). That team, as it was, went on a great run.”
The 2014 Pirates had a 17-4 stretch in September to catapult themselves into the top wild-card spot for the playoffs.
I know what you’re thinking. That’s the setup.
That’s what Huntington will point to Tuesday night when the Pirates do nothing before the trade deadline. He’ll use that number to justify the team’s inactivity and failure to add salary in the hope of making a push for the playoffs now.
That’s initially what I thought, too. But Huntington’s tone quickly changed to one of remorse that he didn’t add at the trade deadline that year.
As he and host Greg Brown delved deeper into topic, Huntington bemoaned the fact the Pirates might have been too singularly focused on acquiring one specific player.
“We were chasing a big prize in ’14,” Huntington recalled. “It took all of our prospects and all of our efforts as we were moving down parallel paths. We were chasing the one big prize, and it didn’t work out.”
That “big prize,” as Brown pointed out, was Tampa Bay’s David Price . He went to Detroit instead. Maybe while haggling to outbid the Tigers, other opportunities to bolster the existing club went by the wayside. So Brown asked Huntington if he regretted not getting the Price deal done.
“Given that we lost in the wild card, the easy answer is, of course, we should regret it,” Huntington responded. “You’d like to think that there would have been a bump. Maybe that player would have had an impact in that one-game wild card.”
Indeed. Maybe Price matches Madison Bumgarner pitch-for-pitch instead of Edinson Volquez giving up five earned runs in five innings.
“When you don’t win it all, you look back and … what could you have done differently?” Huntington wondered out loud.
That’s a question that’ll never get answered.
A more pressing question right now is: Since Huntington is being presented with such a similar set of circumstances, how is he going to answer those lingering questions about what happened in 2014 here in 2018?
“Learning from it, we continue to venture down all pathways,” Huntington said after his radio appearance. “In that situation, we felt good about adding a bigger name. We had multiple opportunities. I couldn’t push it across the finish line.”
Here’s the good news for Huntington. This year’s “big prize” isn’t as big. It’s a so-so edition of another Tampa pitcher, Chris Archer, as opposed to an All-Star edition of Price, who had a 189-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio at the time of his trade.
So whatever young players Tampa coveted who spooked Huntington off the deal at the time — perhaps some combination of Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Tyler Glasnow and Josh Bell — likely now won’t be in play.
Also, Huntington probably can spread his attention beyond that one target.
Furthermore, many of the prospects the Pirates likely are considering moving for Archer — or someone else — aren’t viewed to be as integral to the future as those players above were in 2014. The lone exception could be Austin Meadows, who might be an outfield starter next season.
On top of all that, many contenders already have made significant trades. Price didn’t move until July 31.
By that analysis, one should conclude the cost to acquire talent before Tuesday shouldn’t be as much as it was in 2014. The competition to get it might not be as steep. The need to focus on one bull’s-eye isn’t as necessary. And the Pirates have put themselves in a better position earlier in the calendar than they did four years ago.
With all that evidence, I’m hoping Huntington uses 2014 as a cautionary tale against standing pat, more so than a ready-made excuse to do so again.
Tim Benz is a Tribune-Review staff writer. You can contact Tim at tbenz@tribweb.com or via Twitter @TimBenzPGH.
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