Analysis: Patrick Should Shake Up Pens Soon

Penguins' many flaws too obvious to ignore
Monday, November 21, 2005
By Dave Molinari, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

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Three weeks ago, Penguins general manager Craig Patrick acknowledged that he had entered the season not knowing how his dramatically overhauled roster would fare.

Especially in a season when changes in some rules -- and in the interpretation and application of some others -- were certain to affect how the game was played.

"You don't know what you have," Patrick said. "Especially when you're going into an era where it's going to be a different game than you've been playing for a number of years."

Patrick never is one to act in haste -- patience is one of his greatest strengths, when it isn't being one of his greatest liabilities -- but with the first quarter of the 2005-06 season over, the Penguins' situation should be pretty well in focus. Which is why it won't be surprising if they start to make personnel moves soon.

Almost no one anticipated that they would start 6-9-6, and look so bad doing it much of the time. And while Patrick is not inclined to divulge roster changes he's considering, there are a few issues he probably is pondering these days. To wit:

The Penguins realized months ago -- ever since their bid to sign free agents Mike Modano, Peter Forsberg and Alexei Zhamnov failed and they learned that Evgeni Malkin would be spending this winter in Russia -- that they needed another top center. The first 21 games have done nothing to change that.

Todd Marchant turned up on their radar when Columbus waived him last week to open salary-cap space; whether the Penguins are actively pursuing a trade for him isn't clear, however, although he reportedly has this season and three more at an annual salary of about $2.5 million remaining and could veto any deal.

TSN, a Canadian network, reported that Marchant was placed on waivers again over the weekend, and that Anaheim is a strong candidate to claim him -- and assume responsibility for his contract.

The Blue Jackets did not send Marchant to the American Hockey League after he cleared waivers last week, which means he will not have to pass through re-entry waivers -- and thus make Columbus liable for paying half his salary if another club would grab him -- on his way back to the NHL.
Regardless of whether the Penguins still are -- or plan to be -- in the mix for Marchant, adding a quality presence in the middle remains a priority.

The reason goalie Marc-Andre Fleury is back in the AHL is obvious and well-known, and has nothing to do with stopping pucks. Just as obvious is the fact that Jocelyn Thibault and Sebastien Caron have not consistently produced the kind of goaltending the Penguins need to be a factor in the playoff race.

The Penguins are understandably reluctant to pay Fleury at least $3 million in bonuses for which he can qualify by playing 25 games in the NHL -- don't forget, they're already projecting a seven-figure loss -- but have to weigh that expense against what keeping him in Wilkes-Barre could cost.

With the way Fleury has performed in the NHL and the minors this fall, he might well have gotten the Penguins a few more points in the standings. That would enhance their chances of qualifying for postseason play -- something already factored into their fiscal projections -- and likely would bump up ticket sales.

Increasing the payroll by several million dollars might not be an option because of limits imposed by ownership, but Patrick has to at least investigate ways of freeing money -- even trading a front-line player -- that would cover Fleury's bonuses.

There is, of course, no guarantee he would continue to perform at a high level if the Penguins would make him their go-to goalie. Of course, if Fleury wouldn't play the way the Penguins hope, they could return him to Wilkes-Barre before his bonuses kick in.

There are real dangers associated with rushing young defensemen into the NHL before they are ready -- their long-term development can be seriously stunted -- and the Penguins have been understandably cautious in their handling of first-year pro Noah Welch.

But with so many veteran defensemen struggling to adapt to the NHL's zero-tolerance approach to obstruction-related penalties -- including the hooks and holds that defensemen used to get away with if they were in danger of being beaten -- and Welch being so productive in Wilkes-Barre, the idea of recalling him merits serious consideration.

Welch has one goal, six assists and a plus-minus rating of plus-15 in 17 games with the Baby Penguins, who are 16-0-1 after a 5-2 victory yesterday in Bridgeport.

Whether by trade or promotion, meaningful changes aren't always easy to make in the NHL today. Salary-cap issues must be factored into deals, the Penguins' self-imposed ceiling on spending can't be ignored and space has to be carved out on the 23-man roster.

But with a quarter of the season expired and the Penguins stagnating among the Eastern Conference bottom-feeders, simply maintaining the status quo doesn't appear to be a viable option.

(Dave Molinari can be reached at 412-263-1144.)