Signing Bay is one move the Pirates won't regret
Friday, November 18, 2005
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Eerily, perhaps ominously, the news conference heralding the signing of the Pirates' best player to a multiyear, multimillion dollar contract came five years to the day -- almost to the minute -- of a news conference heralding the signing of the Pirates' best player to a multiyear, multimillion dollar contract.
On the afternoon of Nov. 17, 2005, the Pirates signed the player they absolutely had to sign.
Just as on the afternoon of Nov. 17, 2000, they signed the player they absolutely had to sign.
On Nov. 17, 2005, Jason was praised not just as an outstanding player but as a fine human being and a credit to the community. Just as on Nov. 17, 2000, Jason was described in similar fashion.
The Pirates can only hope the comparison between Jason Bay and Jason Kendall ends there.
The Kendall signing turned disastrous, bordering on catastrophic, almost from the start. His batting average declined 54 points the year after the signing. The power that was expected to bloom as he matured atrophied instead. As the team lost, he became an unhappy camper. As it lost more, he became the focal point of the blame with some, preposterously, calling him a cancer in the clubhouse.
They'll never say that about Bay, a man of immense baseball talent and a level of humility to match. Bay, who agreed to a four-year, $18.25 million contract, is a throwback to the day when players allowed their accomplishments, not their lifestyle or words, to speak for themselves.
The contract takes away all of Bay's arbitration years but still allows him seek free agency after the 2009 season, the first year he would be eligible. Bay and his agent wanted a fifth year -- which would have significantly increased the value of the contract -- guaranteed. The Pirates wanted the year at their option.
What's important is the franchise has a legitimate player to build around as general manager Dave Littlefield and first-year manager Jim Tracy attempt to turn around 13 years of losing.
Although not surprising since the deal had been simmering since late in this past season, the move was out of character for Littlefield, who has proceeded with extreme caution in doling out money to players. It was Littlefield who was criticized by some for giving Bay little more than a token raise ($50,000) after Bay won the Rookie of the Year award in 2004. It was just Littlefield exercising the fiscal prudence needed in a small-market situation.
That he responded so differently after this past season -- when he didn't have to -- speaks not to the fact Littlefield has changed his style but that he has that much confidence in Bay. He has good reason to feel that way even if his opinion is not shared by many others. Bay not only is underappreciated throughout baseball, the result of playing in Pittsburgh, but he's also underappreciated in Pittsburgh, the result of too many not understanding precisely what his accomplishments have been.
If the discussion at the local bar got around to the best offensive outfielders in baseball, the names most likely heard would be Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero and Gary Sheffield.
Put Bay in that group and put him in the top half. In talking about National League outfielders put him at the top.
By conventional baseball statistics Bay is a good player, not approaching a great one. He hit 32 home runs, drove in 101 runs and had a batting average of .306 last season. But those are old-fashioned statistics. Batting average has fallen distinctly behind on-base percentage as a barometer of player value. Likewise, RBIs and home runs are nothing compared to slugging percentage and -- the ultimate offensive statistic -- OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage). Runs batted in, for example, are often cited as the most important offensive statistic. But driving in runs requires teammates to be on base. OPS defines what the player has done, not what his teammates have helped him to do.
Among National League outfielders, Bay is fourth in on-base percentage and fourth in slugging percentage. When those two numbers are combined to get OPS, Bay is the best in the National League and second only to Ramirez throughout baseball.
In the National League, his OPS of .961 (.402 on base, .559 slugging) trailed only four first basemen -- Derrek Lee, Albert Pujols, Carlos Delgado and Todd Helton -- and led such more highly regarded outfielders as Miguel Cabrera, Lance Berkman, Andruw Jones and Jim Edmonds.
If Bay were some kind of buffoon in the outfield, these numbers might not mean as much. But he's an excellent defensive outfielder, whose only shortcoming is a below-average arm. He's ideal for the vast left field at PNC Park.
He's ideal, too, for the Pirates, a Canadian by birth but a Pittsburgher by personality. The Pirates made the right move, the only move. This one won't turn sour.
(Bob Smizik can be reached at bsmizik@post-gazette.com.)
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