Wednesday, February 08, 2006

Gregg Easterbrook: Pittsburgh Resplendent

[Believe it or not this post has indeed been edited...that's code for shortened. - jtf]

Pittsburgh resplendent, and read this column at 64 million times the speed of light!

Special to NFL.com

(Feb. 7, 2006) -- So what did the Super Bowl prove -- that defense trumps offense? That roughneck football trumps finesse? That a team that loses three defensive starters during a game will fade in the fourth quarter? Yours truly thinks the larger lesson of this Super Bowl is that the team that starts the most originally drafted players usually wins. Pittsburgh started 17 players that it drafted and Seattle started 10.

Sports fanatics obsess over the top of the draft -- should No. 1 be Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart or Vince Young? -- yet it is the sum of a team's drafted players that matters. Being winners, Super Bowl teams normally start a high number of originally drafted players. On Sunday, 27 of 44 starters were originally drafted by Pittsburgh or Seattle. Last February when New England beat Philadelphia in the Super Bowl, 26 of 44 starters were originally draftees of the Pats or Eagles. Pick a game between weak teams and the equation is often different. This season when Oakland played Cleveland, 15 of 44 starters were original draftees.

At first blush, starting originally drafted players may seem only to mean that a team is not wasting its draft picks -- no small consideration. But other factors are at work, including time commitments and salary-cap management. Most draftees sign for at least three years, and a three-year rookie contract is really a four-year commitment owing to the "restricted free agent" rule governing the fourth year. Restricted freedom -- what a postmodern concept! Four-year commitments mean a drafted player will be with his team a substantial chunk of time, long enough to learn the coach's system and worldview. Established veterans who move as true free agents often sign agreements that are announced as long-term deals but actually last a couple years at most. Coaches strongly prefer players committed to the team for a long period, and such commitments correlate with winning. In turn, the fact that the player knows he is committed to the team for four years gives him incentive to be team-spirited and get along with others, unlike mercenaries of the Terrell Owens ilk. And through the four years of an NFL rookie commitment, the player knows he is building up to the day he becomes a true free agent and can sign with whoever offers the largest bonus. Players working their way toward their first chance at true free agency are highly motivated.

The next reason it's important to have lots of originally drafted players is the cap. First-round choices cost a bundle, but other draftees are quite affordable in cap terms. Let me offer examples from last year's Super Bowl, because the 2005 season is not yet in the USA Today sports pay database. Last year's Super Bowl starting center for New England, Dan Koppen, a fifth-round choice, earned $340,000, well below the Patriots' median of $660,000. Having low-drafted, moderately paid but successful players such as Koppen enabled the Patriots to free up salary cap space for the $2.1 million earned by Rosevelt Colvin or the $1.7 million paid to Corey Dillon, two stars. Today the fourth- or fifth-round draft choice who starts is worth his weight in gold, because his relatively modest pay keeps the salary cap under control.

This leads to the next point, that it's successful choices from any round, not necessarily the glamorous first round, that matter. The Steelers started six originally drafted first-rounders -- plus two second-round choices, four three-round picks, four fourth-round choices and a fifth-round choice. Strong drafting below the first round was essential to Pittsburgh's success, including a Super Bowl MVP, Hines Wards, who went in the third round. But then, only three of the last 11 Super Bowl MVPs have been first-round draftees.

In other football news, the Super Bowl was broadcast on five-second delay as a stopgap against the Rolling Stones' colorful language or malfunction of cheerleaders' tops. The Redford-Newman movie The Sting was premised on exploiting a slight delay between when horseracing finishes were known at the track and the results went out over teletype. All week, yours truly kept trying to think of some way cell-phone broadcasts from Ford Field, going out real time, could be exploited to trick the billion people watching the five-second-delayed broadcast. Alas, I didn't succeed. Today's column was, however, written on five-adjective delay.

Stats of the Week: In succession Pittsburgh held the league's fourth-highest scoring team, Cincinnati, averaging 26.3 points, to 17 points; the league's second-highest scoring team, Indianapolis, averaging 27.4 points, to 18 points; the league's seventh-highest scoring team, Denver, averaging 24.7 points, to 17 points; the league's highest-scoring team, Seattle, averaging 28.2 points, to 10 points.

Stats of the Week No. 2: Seattle dropped as many passes (five) as Super Bowl MVP Hines Ward caught.

Stats of the Week No. 3: Franchises making their first Super Bowl appearance are 4-14 against franchises that already have a Super Bowl appearance.

Stats of the Week No. 4: Pittsburgh won despite Ben Roethlisberger finishing with a 22.6 rating. If every pass a quarterback throws falls to the ground incomplete, his rating is 39.6.

Stats of the Week No. 5: At one juncture Seattle had run 43 plays and committed no turnovers, yet scored just three points.

Stats of the Week No. 6: Pittsburgh has the league's longest-serving coach (Bill Cowher, 14 seasons) and also the most regular-season victories in the period (141). Noted by Judy Battista of the New York Times.

Stats of the Week No. 7: At 7:16 Eastern, in the second quarter, Pittsburgh recorded its initial first down.

Stats of the Week No. 8: Ben Roethlisberger is 27-4 as a starter.

Stats of the Week No. 9: Pittsburgh and Seattle finished on a combined 21-2 run.

Stats of the Week No. 10: Pittsburgh finished on an 8-0 run, winning by an average of 28-12.

Rumsfeld to Joint Chiefs: There's Been Some Mistake, We Missed 15 Countries: Just before Super Bowl kickoff, Al Michaels welcomed U.S. armed forces members "serving overseas in 175 countries." Yours truly thinks grateful thoughts about the men and women defending our liberty, and the concept of liberty, by serving overseas. Yet there are 191 nations in the world. We have troops stationed in 175 of them? Make that 176, including here. We have soldiers in 92 percent of the world's nations?

Pittsburgh Analysis: You're going to watch a lot of football before you see a team have a better streak on defense: eight straight wins allowing an average of 12 points, culminating in a Super Bowl triumph allowing 10 points to the league's highest-scoring team. Throughout the playoffs Pittsburgh had great front-seven play, superb tackling -- tackling is overlooked as essential to good defense -- and nary a coverage breakdown. Despite the Blitzburgh hype, the Steelers blitzed less as the pressure cranked up. During the regular season Pittsburgh blitzed on 32 percent of opposition downs, highest figure in the league. But against Cincinnati in the first round of the playoffs blitzed on 18 percent of Bengals' downs; in the second round, blitzed on 25 percent of Colts' downs; in the AFC championship, on 16 percent of Broncos' downs; in the Super Bowl blitzed 10 times on 77 Seattle downs, 13 percent. Thirteen percent is actually a little lower than the league-wide average for blitzing. One of the most effective defense tactics is to build up a reputation for blitzing like mad, then in pressure games, show the blitz but back off. New England used this approach in its three Super Bowl runs. Pittsburgh just used the tactic in four straight playoff contests, and each time, the opposition quarterback seemed to expect more blitzing than he got, then be surprised when the "hot" read receiver wasn't open immediately after the snap.

On offense, the Steelers began the game by passing just as in their previous two playoffs wins, Pittsburgh coaches calling six passes and three runs in the first quarter. When these plays didn't work, Pittsburgh staging three consecutive three-and-outs to start the contest, Seattle avoided a Steelers fast start and seemed to have an excellent chance to win. But Ben Roethlisberger did not become discouraged or tentative. Steelers' coaches kept calling plays and formations with wrinkles: once a double tight end on second and long, once a Texas Tech look with wide splits and standup stances on the offensive line, and of course the reverse pass by Antwaan Randle El. Note that earlier, Pittsburgh ran an end-around to Hines Ward; that the first receiver taking the ball sideways ran with it set Seattle defensive backs up for biting the second time a Pittsburgh receiver took the ball sideways. Another clever action: leading 21-10 with 4:45 remaining, the Steelers faced third-and-6. They lined up in the shotgun; Roethlisberger faked a sweep to Willie Parker; Randle El faked a backslide block, then spun around and took a low-risk shovel pass seven yards for the first down. Roethlisberger's fabulous play on third-and-28 in the second quarter, Steelers trailing 3-0, was fabulous for two reasons. First, he knew Seattle defensive end Grant Wistrom, like many D-ends who play for sack stats, tends to charge straight up the field, ignoring his "underneath" responsibility. When Roethlisberger saw Wistrom charge straight up the field, he quickly scooted to the underneath area, buying time. Then Roethlisberger stopped on a dime at the line of scrimmage and waited till the last conceivable instant before throwing a 37-yard strike to Hines Ward, placing the ball at first-and-goal on the Seattle 3 and leading to Pittsburgh's first touchdown. What is Roethlisberger, a 10-year veteran?

Well as Pittsburgh played and well as Steelers' coaches coached, there were multiple calls that made me cover my eyes. Leading 14-3 midway through the third quarter, Pittsburgh faced third-and-6 on the Seattle 7. If the Steelers run here, maybe they get a first down or touchdown; anyway the field goal makes it a 17-3 lead and Seattle trails by two touchdowns against a strong defense. Tis better to have rushed and lost than never to have rushed at all! Instead pass, interception returned to the Steelers' 20, the Hawks make it 14-10 three snaps later. Plus the call was a slant-corner to Cedrick Wilson -- Wilson scored a touchdown on this pattern in the AFC championship, and from about the same point on the field. Surely Seattle had scouted Pittsburgh's previous game! Indeed, the Blue Men Group seemed to know what was coming.

Now it's Pittsburgh 14, Seattle 10, Steelers facing third-and-2 at the end of the third. Neither Jerome Bettis nor Willie Parker were on the field; shotgun formation, pass incomplete, punt. To that point Pittsburgh was averaging 7.1 yards per rush: Tis better to have rushed and lost than never to have rushed at all! After the Pittsburgh punt, Seattle marched to the Steelers' 1 before the questionable holding penalty -- see below -- stopped the Blue Men. It's amazing to think that for all the second half power-rush prowess of the Steelers, they came perilously close to blowing the Super Bowl by going pass-wacky on third-and-short late. But that's the only criticism I can think of about the Pittsburgh performance, and it's not much, is it? (On its next possession Pittsburgh again faced third-and-2, ran, converted, and scored the icing touchdown the following snap. Pittsburgh also ran and converted on a third-and-3 with 3:51 remaining, rendering the clock situation hopeless for Seattle).

Mystery Explained: Pittsburgh leading 7-3 with 13 seconds remaining in the first half, the Steelers called timeout even as Seattle, facing third-and-6 on the Hypocycloids' 36, was close to letting the play clock run out. Al Michaels and John Madden evinced disbelief that Pittsburgh would call time in that situation. Here's why. The Steelers lined up with only five in the tackle box; Matt Hasselbeck noticed and was shifting the Hawks from the spread to an 'I' formation for a run up the middle; Bill Cowher realized what Hasselbeck was doing and called time. Given the clock, Seattle took too long to change sets. But Cowher's reaction was smart -- a run up the middle might have produced a significant gain. As it was Seattle threw incomplete, then missed a long field-goal attempt.

Hall of Fame Update: The voters took six, most since 2001, though Tuesday Morning Quarterback still thinks they should have elected all 15. Anyway, a large group is a good start.

Now the next problem: six of the last 10 Hall of Fame inductees were quarterbacks. My experience is that on the field, quarterbacks do not outnumber all other players combined. Casual fans may only care about quarterback. But shouldn't the Canton electors, all of whom earn their livings as football commentators, know enough about the sport to pay as much attention to linemen as to quarterbacks?

Rookies Sit in the Back: In 2004 Boeing ended production of its venerable 757 jetliner; the 757 has been relegated to retired status on the company's product list, along with the DC-8. But the plane bows out in glory as the aircraft of the new Airlines New York-to-London Eos, which employs 757s designed for 200 passengers reconfigured for 48 with lay-flat sleeper seats, and as the team plane of the Seattle Seahawks. Several NBA clubs have their own jetliner, a trend that began about a decade ago. For sports teams that travel constantly, this indulgence might even result in an extra victory here and there. By contrast NFL clubs travel 10 or 12 times annually, so a charter flight would seem to be all that's required. The Seahawks are the first NFL franchise to have a large jetliner, and needless to say the fact that owner Paul Allen is one of the world's richest people is a factor. Will this trigger an airborne arms race in which other NFL owners buy jetliners to prevent the Seahawks from having a travel-comfort advantage?

Seattle Analysis : My, the Seattle clock management was weird at the end of both halves, culminating with the score 21-10, the Hawks facing third-and-10 on the Steelers 27 with 27 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter and throwing a rinky-dinky flat pass to Jerramy Stevens, who was tackled in bounds, all but officially ending the game. A flat pass to the tight end with 27 seconds remaining? This was the last of many mental errors by Seattle coaches and players on a day when the Seahawks mostly played well, but sure didn't think well.

Seattle did not have anything distinctive in its game plan. Through the playoffs, Pittsburgh had run different looks on offense and defense each week -- New England also varies tremendously from week to week -- while having at least a few special plays for each game. The Seahawks seemed to run their usual stuff, and though they run their usual stuff well, deprived themselves of the extra edge of game planning. The Hawks attempted no reverses or end-arounds on offense (coaches did call a punt-return reverse that could not be executed, owing to a high Pittsburgh punt) and called no flea flicker or other gadget play: Pittsburgh ran three plays in this category, resulting in two first downs and one touchdown. Seneca Wallace made only a brief appearance -- because what, coaches were saving him for next week? Lack of forethought was shown on defense, too. The Hawks defense played well, considering losing three defensive starters: Seattle held Roethlisberger to a net of 123 yards passing on 21 attempts, picking him off twice. Reader Jim Hickey of Andover, Mass., notes Roethlisberger's 22.6 passer rating was lower than his age of 23. But on the game-icing touchdown, Randle El to Ward, the Seattle secondary was fooled, though during the regular season Randle El threw off that action three times. And it wasn't just the backups who were fooled; megabucks corner Marcus Trufant is the one who let Ward go. The five dropped passes? Any team can drop one in a game -- Ward had a bad drop, but went onto to become MVP. Five drops shows lack of concentration; one of the drops would have put Seattle in a goal-to-go. Consider Matt Hasselbeck finished 29 for 46 for 273 and had five dropped. If those five were caught, Monday morning people might have been talking about Hasselbeck's MVP award.

The game's two critical moments for Seattle were coaching mistakes. The Blue Men lead 3-0 midway through the second quarter, faced fourth and the length of a football on their own 26. Aaaaaiiiiiiiyyyyyyeeeee! I cried aloud to the football gods as Mike Holmgren sent in the punter. Sure it's your own territory in a close contest. But you have the league's leading rusher; he averages 5.1 yards a carry. Shaun Alexander has been stopped on a third-and-1 or fourth-and-1 only once all season. And it's the Super Bowl, don't mince around, go win the game! I scarcely need tell you the Steelers soon passed the point where the ball would have been had the Seahawks gone for it and missed. Holmgren's fraidy-cat punt brought Pittsburgh to life. To the moment of the punt, the Steelers had 44 net yards and one first down; on the possession following the punt they gained 69 yards and scored a touchdown. Endlessly, Tuesday Morning Quarterback reiterates that when a coach goes for it in a situation like this, he sends his players the message he is challenging them to win the game. When a coach punts in a situation like this, he sends his players the message he is afraid of losing. Seeing this punt boom, Pittsburgh sensed fear and immediately pounced.

Now it's Steelers 21, Seahawks 10 with 6:28 remaining in the game, Seattle facing fourth-and-13 at midfield. I could not believe my peepers when Holmgren again sent in the punter. Sure fourth-and-13 is a long down, but this is the Super Bowl, there is no tomorrow! Down by two scores late in the fourth quarter you must, absolutely must, go for it. Punt and even if you force a three-and-out the clock situation is nearly impossible. Plus, at that point, three of Seattle's defensive starters were sidelined with injuries, greatly reducing the chance of a three-and-out.
Pittsburgh converted two first downs and held the ball until the two-minute warning, at which point Seattle's goose was cooked. As the punt boomed, you know what words I wrote in my notebook: GAME OVER. Bad enough when coaches quit on a regular-season game; with 6:28 remaining, Mike Holmgren quit on the Super Bowl! It's hard not to suspect he was more concerned with holding down the margin of defeat than going all-out to try for victory.

Cross-Generation Message to NFL: TMQ's 15-year old, Mara Rose, watched the Stones' halftime show slack-jawed. "These guys should be in some house in Florida that has wind chimes," she said. "They should be listening to the radio and saying to each other, 'Oh look, a boat is going by.'" There's a cross-generational message there, NFL. McCartney, the Stones -- next year how 'bout a halftime act that will appeal to viewers not yet eligible for Social Security? Meanwhile kids, have at look at the Stones' faces and Mick's wasted physique. Kids, this is what happens when you do drugs, okay?

Best Blocks: The Super Bowl matched the league's best offensive lines, and this is as it should be, offensive line play being the first element in football success. Alan Faneca of the Steelers would have been my choice for MVP: His perfect pull-trap block created the Willie Parker touchdown run that was the game's biggest play. All the Steelers' offensive linemen performed well, so let's name them: Faneca, Jeff Hartings, Kendall Simmons, Marvel Smith and Max Starks. Simmons had a perfect pull-seal block on the Hines Ward end-around. Seattle blockers did reasonably well, clearing the way for the first 100-yards-plus rushing day against Pittsburgh in the postseason. But on what turned out to be the game's deciding snap -- Seattle facing third-and-8 on the Pittsburgh 47 with 6:36 remaining, trailing 21-10 -- no Seahawks offensive lineman even attempted to block Deshea Townsend, who got the sack that preceded the fatal punt. Center Robbie Tobeck turned the wrong way and ended up blocking air. Why are the Pittsburgh and Seattle offensive lines so good? One reason is seven of the 10 were originally drafted by their teams. Four of five players on both offensive lines have been starting together for four years, meaning they know each other's moves. Offensive line moves are more important than spectators realize: think of Tobeck turning the wrong way. Teams seeking success ought to follow the Pittsburgh and Seattle offensive line model -- invest draft choices in blockers, then keep them together as a unit for an extended period.

Zebra Critique: Four of the six big officiating decisions went against Seattle. Does this mean a pro-Steelers bias, as some in the sports yak world are saying, or perhaps a slap at Mike Holmgren by the officiating guild? (Holmgren ripped the officials after the Giants-Seahawks contest; conspiracy theory says the zebras were seeking vengeance.) The two decisions that favored the Hawks were the fourth-quarter replay reversal that gave possession, initially awarded to Pittsburgh, back to Seattle; and the no-call of a block in the back by Seattle during Kelly Herndon's record interception return. Of the four big decisions that favored the Steelers, two seemed correct to me. On the offensive pass interference nullifying Seattle's first touchdown, Darrell Jackson pushed off with the ball in the air and gained advantage by doing so. Had the physics of the play been exactly the same, except Jackson a defender, television announcers would have been screaming, "Interference!" It's true, as some said, that Michael Irvin often got away with push-offs -- but he shouldn't have. And when Roethlisberger dove for Pittsburgh's first touchdown, at game speed I thought, "He didn't make it." But replays showed the tip of the ball above the goal line, and Rule 3, Section 38 reads, "A touchdown is the situation is which any part of the ball, legally in possession of a player inbounds, in on, above, or behind an opponent's goal line."

On the flip side, the holding penalty against Sean Locklear, nullifying what would have been a Seahawks' first-and-goal on the Pittsburgh 1 in the fourth quarter, seemed a bad call. On almost every Pittsburgh offensive play, a Steelers blocker grabbed as briefly as Locklear grabbed on the down in question; if it was illegal for one team, it should have been illegal for both teams.
Owing to the dubious penalty, instead of first-and-goal, Seattle ended up throwing an interception on third-and-long. That interception undid the Seahawks, as they staged a 13-play, 81-yard drive that ended in no points, and undid the Super Bowl itself, converting what might have been a fabulous ending into a lackluster fourth quarter. Seattle faithful also have a legitimate complaint that the fourth-quarter 15-yard penalty on Hasselbeck for "low block" was inexplicable. The rulebook states that during a turnover, neither team may block below the waist. But Hasselbeck wasn't blocking -- he was making the tackle. Check the official Game Book, at 10:54 of the fourth quarter. The league's own Game Book credits Hasselbeck with the tackle on a play where the penalty could be valid only if Hasselbeck was not making a tackle!

Patriots Announce Stadium to be Renamed: Next One Will Have 11 Trans-Dimensional Nanoprobe-Embedded Force-Field-Projecting Blades Field: Reader Josh Byrne of Philadelphia relates the news that Gillette's six-blade razor has already been trumped -- Hitachi just released a 10-bladed razor, which "plays at invariable speed, ensuring the overall effectiveness." As noted last week, TMQ's Law of Razors holds that each century will see a razor with blades equal to the factorial of the highest number of blades on a razor of the previous century. This means that in the 22nd century, someone will market razor with 3,628,800 blades (10x9x8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1).

Hidden Plays: Hidden plays are ones that never make highlight reels, but stop or sustain drives. Pittsburgh leading 14-10 early in the fourth quarter, Seattle faced first-and-20 on the Steelers 29. Hypocycloids tackle Casey Hampton, who rarely pressures the passer, got a sack that made it second-and-25. Hasselbeck ended up throwing his interception on third-and-long; Pittsburgh came back the other way to score the icing touchdown. Hampton's 5-yard sack does not look like much in the stats, but altered the dynamic of what might have been Seattle's go-ahead possession.

Super Bowl Ad Watch: The Stunt City ad was the only memorably clever commercial; it was so funny viewers might have missed the product being promoted. That was Degree antiperspirant; click the extra-silly "director's cut." Blockbuster ran ads for a service that promises "free movies every month" for $9.99 a month. Let's review what the word "free" means, please.

I'd Like to Know the Story Behind the Story of This Story: During the week before the Super Bowl, thousands of reporters are in one place chasing zero news. Pressure for a scoop is immense, if only to justify the eye-popping expense account. ("Umm, Clint, you spent $3,000 on sushi for an unnamed source?") Last Thursday, the Washington Post ran a story in which Redskins officials denied a report by Mike Florio of Profootballtalk.com, who had reported that Adam Schefter of NFL Network was reporting that Peter King of Sports Illustrated was about to report that Terrell Owens might be traded to Washington. Quadruple-tiered reports of something that only might happen! Edward R. Murrow, eat your heart out.

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