Friday, January 26, 2007
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
The acquisition of Adam LaRoche, who hit 32 home runs for the Atlanta Braves last season and who has the look of a big-time power hitter, has Pirates partisans ga-ga about the season. Of course, it doesn't take much to get this breed excited. They were thrilled at this time last year by the additions of Sean Casey and Jeromy Burnitz.
LaRoche, though, is a splendid pickup and makes the Pirates a better team, even if they had to give up closer Mike Gonzalez to get him.
His addition has fans buzzing about the lineup possibilities and wondering when was the last time the Pirates had such a powerful batting order. Most harken to the team's previous championship season of 1992 when Andy Van Slyke and Barry Bonds formed a potent 3-4 combination. But we weren't satisfied with hearsay. We did the necessary research to find the last Pirates lineup that was as good -- or better -- than this one. How's this for a dominating lineup:
A leadoff hitter who batted .277, with a .333 on-base percentage, and who was fourth in the league in stolen bases.
A No. 2 hitter who batted .325, fifth in the league, with a .399 on-base percentage.
A No. 3 hitter who owned four 30-home run seasons, three 100-RBI seasons and who had a .521 slugging percentage (anything over .500 is very good).
A No. 4 hitter, who at age 25 already had one 30-home run season and was on his way to a second 100-RBI season.
A No. 5 hitter who was on his way to a season in which he hit 31 home runs and had a slugging percentage of .567.
A No. 6 hitter who homered 20 times in only 305 at-bats and had a slugging percentage of .561.
Do we really have to go any further?
Such a lineup is significantly more fearsome than what the 2007 Pirates figure to put on the field.
It wasn't easy doing all the research to come up with this information. We had to go all the way back to ... 2003.
That's right, the 2003 Pirates, the team that finished 75-87, could send these first six hitters out: Kenny Lofton (traded July 22 that season to Chicago Cubs), Jason Kendall, Brian Giles (traded Aug. 26 to San Diego), Aramis Ramirez (traded July 22 to Chicago Cubs), Reggie Sanders and Matt Stairs. With all respect, the 2007 expected lineup of Chris Duffy, Jack Wilson (who often batted eighth on the 2003 team), Freddy Sanchez, LaRoche, Jason Bay and Xavier Nady is not as good.
We point this out not to demean the current team. To the contrary, we think it's a nice lineup, and the likely No. 7 and 8 hitters, Ronny Paulino and Jose Castillo, are better than their 2003 counterparts. But as recent history indicates, this lineup alone is not enough to carry the Pirates above .500.
As always, it's all about pitching, and the Pirates will be only as good as their young rotation.
That's quite a load to put on Zach Duke, Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny and Paul Maholm, who have won a combined 46 games in their careers. There's outstanding promise in this group, but starting pitchers are well-known to be slow developers who experience ups and downs as they mature.
It's not like there weren't high hopes for the 2003 rotation. The five pitchers who started the most games that season were Kip Wells, Jeff Suppan, Kris Benson, Josh Fogg and Jeff D'Amico. They entered that season with a combined 180 victories. And it's not like they were at the end of their careers. Except for D'Amico, who retired after the 2004 season, all are expected to be in major-league rotations this season. In 2003, Wells and Benson had every bit the high upside of the current starters.
Where the 2003 team went bad was in the bullpen. Three key and previously dependable relievers imploded. The earned run average of closer Mike Williams went from 2.93 in 2002 to 6.27 with the Pirates. (He was traded July 20 to Philadelphia.) The ERA of right-handed setup man Brian Boehringer went from 3.39 to 5.49. The ERA of left-handed setup man Scott Sauerbeck went from 2.30 to 4.05. (He was traded July 22 to Boston.)
And with them went any hope of what was the most talented Pirates team at least since the mid-1990s of having a winning season.
Even without Gonzalez, the Pirates' bullpen is strong, but no stronger than the 2003 relief corps appeared to be.
Of course, it's much more than how good the Pirates are. It's also about how good the opposition is. The Pirates will not finish above .500 unless they are the third-best team in the Central Division. Since the Central went to six teams in 1998, no fourth-place team has finished above .500. In fact, in the nine years of the six-team division, only three third-place teams finished above .500. So third place isn't even a guarantee of a winning season.
The Pirates are better. They're making progress. But there's a long way to go -- even to .500.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Bob Smizik can be reached at bsmizik@post-gazette.com. )
No comments:
Post a Comment