September 5, 2013
Hello again ...
As you know, Allen Craig suffered a sprained foot Wednesday night. A closer exam Thursday offered some encouraging news: there was no fracture.
This doesn't mean that Craig will be ready to roll in a few days.
And nothing personal, but when the Cardinals offer positive updates on their sidelined players, it's always best to assume that the injury is worse than the organization would have us believe. I don't understand what the Cardinals gain by spreading bogus optimism — it's kind of cute in a Baghdad Bob kind of way — but the peculiar tradition continues.
That said: it really is good news in this regard: with a fracture, Craig is done for the season. If there isn't a fracture, he'll have a chance to return, depending on the necessary healing time for a sprain. So at least there's hope.
I'll be happy to buy into the Cards' optimism ... but ONLY after Craig is actually swinging a bat in a real baseball game over consecutive days.
If the Cardinals have to play on for a while without services provided by the Craig RBI Factory, what does it mean for the offense?
Trouble on a number of fronts.
Craig is 3rd in the NL in RBIs this season with 97. No NL player has driven in more runs than Craig since the beginning of the 2012 season, and this year he's leading the majors with a .454 average with runners in scoring position.
It's not as if the Cardinals' lineup is ripping pitchers apart these days.
So if Craig is down and out, here are the potential repercussions and some other thoughts:
1. Going into Thursday night's game at Cincinnati, the Cardinals are down to 23 regular-season games. So even if this is a relatively minor injury — 15 days on the DL, then a comeback — it would still displace Craig for a big percentage of the remaining schedule. Obviously, this is a terrible time for that, with the Cardinals engaged in a tense three-team race in the NL Central.
2. Don't expect pity from the Reds or Pirates. The Reds had to make do without left fielder Ryan Ludwick for most of the season, and the Pirates recently have been playing without their very good (and injured) left fielderStarling Marte.
3. GM John Mozeliak's decision to pass on acquiring a hitter for added reserve strength looms even larger now. IfMatt Adams takes the bulk of the ABs at first base during Craig's absence, there's no big-bang dimension on the mediocre STL bench.
4. The Cardinals lose one of their top producers soon after the greatly added enhanced their depth and strength by trading for Marlon Byrd, Justin Morneau and John Buck. So far the three add-ons have combined for 23 hits in 55 at-bats (.418.) In eight games Byrd is 12 for 31 with a homer, five doubles, eight RBIs and four runs. Morneau is 6 for 13 with three walks. Buck is 5 for 11. When the first-place team adds three legitimate pieces and your team loses a major piece without adding anyone ... well, not good.
5. Matt Adams is a boomer, and his power is exciting. Just ask Reds manager Dusty Baker, who referred to Adams as "a dangerous man" after Cincinnati felt the pain of Adams' two extra-innings homers in Wednesday's 5-4, 16-inning loss to the Cards. But don't let those two homers blind you; the big bopper has struggled in the second half of the season. Before batted .316 with a combined onbase-slugging percentage of .917. After the All-Star break he's batting .190 with a .619 OPS.
6. This is hardly a shocker; Adams is a young hitter with only 322 MLB career plate appearances. Pitchers always find the holes in an inexperienced swing and exploit that until he shows he can adjust. In Adams' case, RH pitchers are controlling him with low changeups (.143 batting average) and sliders thrown in any zone. Adams is batting .235 against LHP fastballs, and the lefties are also working him over with the slider. Overall this season pitchers (left and right) have attacked Adams with 155 sliders; he's hitting .128 against the pitch.
7. Adams, who bats left, hit well against LH pitchers in the minors, and figures to do so in the majors. In time, anyway. He started off well against them this season, going 7 for 19 with two homers in the season's first half. But since the All-Star break Adams is 1 for 19 vs. LHP, with eight strikeouts. His overall small-sample batting average against lefties this season is .211.
8. This is a factor because the Cardinals have struggled vs. LHP this season. They rank 25th in the majors with a .239 average against lefties this season. Their .296 onbase percentage against lefties ranks 27th. Their .375 slugging percentage ranks 23rd. Craig, who bats right, is hitting .316 with a .572 slugging percentage and 19 homers in 336 plate appearances vs. lefties over the last three seasons. I don't think it's unfair to Adams to suggest that lefthanded pitchers would rather work against him than Craig.
9. With a key RH bat missing, the Cardinals will need more from David Freese, especially against lefthanded pitchers. I don't know what's happened to Freese against LH this season. After batting .330 with a .394 OBP and .497 slugging percentage vs. lefts 2011-2012 combined, Freese has leveled off to a .257 average and .404 SLG against them in 2013. He can still turn that around.
10. When Adams doesn't play first base, who's in there? Brock Peterson, we presume. The journeyman had a robust season at Triple AAA Memphis, slugging .531 with 25 homers in 456 at-bats. He's only 2 for 15 in his brief MLB looks. Depending on the length of Craig's absence, Peterson may get more of an opportunity to show he can hit in the big leagues. Yadier Molina has played some 1B in the past but I don't think the Cardinals would put him there on a day when he should be resting his problematic knee. We'll see.
11. Related question: what happens when Carlos Beltran needs a day off in RF? Best guess: more of Shane Robinson, who bats RH... with some Adron Chambers (LH bat) mixed in. The season-ending knee injury to uber prospect Oscar Taveras was a blow. If healthy, OT could have helped in situations like this.
12. I sincerely hope the Cardinals are right when they suggest that their All-Star hitter avoided serious injury here., You'd like to see this team have its best chance. I want the Cardinals, Pirates and Reds to be going, full blast, as they compete like crazy for the NL Central championship. And the Cardinals need Craig in their lineup to capture the division title.
Thanks for reading ...
— Bernie
Photo: Scott Kane/Icon SMI
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