Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
http://www.post-gazette.com/
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Xavier Nady (R) is congratulated by Jason Bay and Nate McLouth after a three-run home run that won the game in the 12th inning at Atlanta, March 31, 2008.(Reuters)
If you want to get a good barroom argument started, try this one: Which is worse, the Pirates' starters or relievers?
There is ammunition galore for both sides. The sad-sack Pirates starters vs. the rally-igniting Pirates relievers. You can't go wrong with either group. Pirates starters have the highest earned run average and opponents batting average in the National League. So do the relievers, but not by as great a margin.
Pirates pitching is horrendous. The team ERA is 5.24, starters 5.64, relievers 4.63. The Pirates are fifth in the NL in runs but have the 11th-best record. Pitching is dragging the team down, way down.
The help the team needs is not likely to come from its shallow minor league system. Which means there is pressure on general manager Neal Huntington to build up his pitching staff through trades. Huntington seems amenable to that, and there has been much talk that Xavier Nady, fifth in the league in batting, will be the player the Pirates deal for a pitcher. Any other players the Pirates might trade also almost certainly would be used to acquire pitching.
But here's the problem with that. Teams generally don't hand over quality pitching. Pitchers are the most important players in baseball. Teams hold good ones dear.
Not that Dave Littlefield, Huntington's predecessor, is much of a measuring stick, but here's a list of pitchers he traded for in his six-year run: Ryan Vogelsong, Tony McKnight, Adrian Burnside, Josh Fogg, Kip Wells, Sean Lowe, Ben Shaffer, Duaner Sanchez, Matt Guerrier, Matt Herges, Frank Brooks, Oliver Perez, Matt Brubeck, Mark Redman, Jonah Bayliss, Damaso Marte, Jesse Chavez, Sean Chacon and Brian Rogers.
It wasn't as if Littlefield was offering chopped liver. To get some of those pitchers he used such first-class talent as Jason Schmidt, Brian Giles, Chris Young, Aramis Ramirez and Mike Williams. All of those players have been named to the All-Star team at least once. That's not much of a return on an investment.
Perez is the best of the acquired bunch, but it took Giles to get him and Jason Bay in August 2003. Not only was the Brian Giles of 2003 a better player than anyone the Pirates might offer this month, but he had been signed to a team-friendly contract through 2005.
Even when a team does acquire a quality pitcher, the trade doesn't necessarily guarantee long-term improvement, as the case of Perez proves. Wells and Fogg gave the Pirates a couple of decent-to-good seasons, but neither emerged as anything approaching a top-of-the-rotation starter.
So why gamble on unproven starting pitching, which is all the Pirates are likely to obtain, and disrupt the one proven aspect of the team: its offense?
We're suggesting that before the Pirates trade Nady -- and immediately decrease their chances of winning this season and next -- they consider keeping their offense together and gamble with the pitchers they have and may be able to pick up as bargain free agents or in lesser trades.
Paul Maholm appears to be maturing into a good pitcher. Zach Duke has shown, after two bad seasons, that he may be of major-league caliber at the bottom of the rotation. It's entirely possible Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny will return to form.
The Pirates have had some success in the past with finding pitchers at a reasonable rate. Williams, the team's best closer since Kent Tekulve, and Todd Ritchie, who won 35 games in three years from 1999-2001, were picked up off the baseball scrap heap. A slow market enabled the Pirates to get Jeff Suppan for one season in 2003.
The notion that prized prospect Andrew McCutcheon will make the departure of Nady bearable doesn't make a lot of sense. McCutcheon is going to be a good player, probably better than Nady, but it's doubtful he'll reach his peak in 2009 or even 2010. In Barry Bonds' first four seasons, his batting averages were .223, .261, .283 and .248. It's not like McCutcheon is tearing apart Class AAA. He's batting .282 with eight home runs in 352 at bats.
Keeping Nady will be costly. He will be in his final year of arbitration and stands to make about $6 million next season. Any pitcher the Pirates acquire likely would make around $400,000. Additionally, Nady will be a free agent after the 2009 season and is likely to go elsewhere.
Why not offer Nady a long-term deal now? Why not show the fans of Pittsburgh there is a commitment to keeping good players? Nady has said privately he would like to stay in Pittsburgh. All players say that -- even Bonds did -- but put him to the test by offering him a long-term deal before he gets to free agency.
It's a better risk -- although more costly -- than trading him for a pitcher who has a good chance of becoming the next Ryan Vogelsong.
Bob Smizik can be reached at bsmizik@post-gazette.com.
First published on July 16, 2008 at 12:00 am
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