By Dejan Kovacevic
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
http://www.post-gazette.com/
Sunday, July 06, 2008
Gene J. Puskar, Brian Kersey/APExamples around baseball might explain the woes of Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny.
All kinds of theories can be floated to explain the regression of Ian Snell and freshly demoted Tom Gorzelanny, from blaming pitching coach Jeff Andrews, to complacency on the part of the athletes after each had a breakout 2007, to opponents having adjusted to their stuff.
One player in the Pirates' clubhouse recently floated this one: "Take a look at all of the pitchers who had 200 innings last season, right up and down the list."
OK, then ...
Nineteen National League pitchers logged 200-plus innings in 2007, with Snell tied for ninth at 208 and Gorzelanny 17th with 201 2/3. The list included most of the league's top overall performers, with Brandon Webb, Jake Peavy, Aaron Harang, Carlos Zambrano, Roy Oswalt, John Smoltz, Brad Penny, Jeff Francis, Dontrelle Willis ...
Hey, seeing a pattern yet?
Right. With the sizable exception of Arizona's brilliant Webb, most either have regressed this season or, worse, have gotten hurt. Consider:
• Ten of the 19 pitchers have missed time to injury: Peavy, Zambrano, Oswalt, Penny, Smoltz, Willis, Adam Wainwright, Tom Glavine and, of course, Snell and Gorzelanny. Oswalt's trouble has been with the hip, Willis' with the knee. The rest were arm-related.
• Fourteen of the 19 have higher ERAs than last season. That includes especially gaudy ERAs from Livan Hernandez (5.18), Francis (5.67), Penny (5.88), Snell (5.99), Bronson Arroyo (5.82), Gorzelanny (6.57) and Willis (10.15). Gorzelanny was sent to Indianapolis yesterday. Willis' performance was so disastrous that Detroit sent him all the way down to Class A Lakeland.
• Eight of the 19 have no realistic chance at 200 innings this year.
• Twelve of the 19 have won-lost records at .500 or lower. Those are lowlighted by Harang (3-10), Francis (3-7) and Snell (3-7).
• Last year, 11 of the 19 in the 200-inning club recorded 150 or more strikeouts. Only six from that group are on such a pace currently.
What does it mean?
Hard to say, other than that the 200-inning mark is held in the highest esteem by baseball people for a reason: It clearly is not easy to achieve or sustain.
In the cases of Snell and Gorzelanny, it should be added that each topped 200 last year for the first time in his career. Snell exceeded his previous high by 22 innings, Gorzelanny by a very unsightly 40 1/3. That included pitching the next-to-last game of 2007 in a vain -- and some might argue, pointless -- attempt at a 15th victory.
Why they have pitch limits: Exhibit B
There is no secret to how power pitcher Tanner Scheppers, the Pirates' second-round draft pick, injured his shoulder this summer: He experienced soreness early in Fresno State University's season, was rested some, then returned to make starts of 106, 130, 134 and 137 pitches once that team entered conference play.
Two days before that 137-pitch game, Scheppers was summoned in relief of an extra-inning game to record two outs. By any standard, but especially with a 21-year-old, that is extraordinary handling of a pitcher, and there is a widely held view within the industry that this example and others reflect poorly on Fresno State's sixth-year coach, Mike Batesole, despite his team having won the NCAA championship two weeks ago.
Scheppers has damage to his labrum and is rehabilitating in California. By month's end, he will be examined by the Pirates, who then will decide whether to try to sign him in advance of the Aug. 15 deadline. Management is cautiously optimistic about the health and the signing.
A cultural divide?
On its surface, it might appear the Pirates are intent on stocking all their Latin American signings on one minor-league affiliate, that being Bradenton of the rookie-level Gulf Coast League: Bradenton's 33-man roster includes 20 players in that category, most freshly arrived from the Dominican Republic and Venezuela.
By contrast, State College, the next level up in the short-season New York-Penn League, has a 31-man roster with eight players in that category.
Anything to that from the cultural standpoint?
"Hadn't noticed it until you pointed it out," general manager Neal Huntington told a reporter with a laugh. "No, it's not something we consciously did."
So, what is the road map?
As Huntington laid it out, an advanced college player typically will go right to short-season State College, as has been the case with 15 players signed out of the draft earlier this month. That player then would skip high Class A Lynchburg and proceed directly to Class AA Altoona.
Latin American signings and high school draft picks, because they are younger, are assigned to Bradenton. And, if all goes well, they will bypass State College or even low Class A Hickory on their way to Lynchburg.
"It's all about the age and the advanced level of the player," Huntington said. "But it's not set in stone, either."
The home skyline advantage
The numbers will show the Pirates have been lousy in the first inning, getting outscored, 62-35. But that discrepancy is not so great at home, where they have been outscored, 30-20.
There might be something to that.
Ask the players, and they will attest that, for a standard 7:05 p.m. game at PNC Park, any lingering sunshine during the first inning can create a dazzling glare off certain Downtown buildings that makes life miserable for hitters, especially visitors unaccustomed to it.
"There are times it's really hard to see," Doug Mientkiewicz said.
"Impossible," Zach Duke chimed in.
That being the case, on a sunny day, it might behoove the Pirates' starters to pace the mound, pound the resin bag and shake off as many signals as possible to delay their hitters' first turn, right?
Dejan Kovacevic can be reached at dkovacevic@post-gazette.com.
First published on July 6, 2008 at 12:00 am
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